3 ms·

The exponential curve is consistent with the exponential increase in testing. If a stable 30% of a pop has X at any given time, and you test 10 people for X th

The exponential curve is consistent with the exponential increase in testing. If a stable 30% of a pop has X at any given time, and you test 10 people for X the first week, 100 the next week, 1000 the next week, etc. you will have a nice exponential curve of the number of cases while, in reality, nothing all that exciting is happening. Have you seen a scary graph anywhere in the media that normalizes for the number of tests given? I haven't.

MagnumOpus 7y ago
The exponential curve in deaths and ICU admissions is independent of testing (and wouldn’t exist if the virus had been endemic in the population before March).
- lurquer 7y ago
  The exponential curve in deaths would be reflective of exponential testing/ Once again, if you have a stable X percent of people dying from Y, an exponential increase in testing for Y will give the illusion of an exponential increase in Y deaths. As far as ICU admissions, that is an extremely subjective number, based on individual hospital policies; from my conversations with local HCPs, of two patients in the same degree of distress, the one who tests positive will have a greater likelihood of being put into a quarantined ICU for covid cases. There is no sinister reason behind this; its just that the covid patient has a much greater chance or taking a rapid turn for the worse. Anyway, my statement (now downvoted) isn't meant to be controversial. It's just a fact. We have had an exponential increase in testing in many parts of the countries... posting the results and then having a newscaster say, "Look at the scary exponential curve" is absurd. There could be -- and most likely is -- an exponential rise in the number of cases. But, using the graphs without backing out the curve in the testing would get you an F on a freshman statistics quiz.

3 ms·

The exponential curve is consistent with the exponential increase in testing. If a stable 30% of a pop has X at any given time, and you test 10 people for X th

by lurquer 7y ago

MagnumOpus 7y ago
The exponential curve in deaths and ICU admissions is independent of testing (and wouldn’t exist if the virus had been endemic in the population before March).
- lurquer 7y ago
  The exponential curve in deaths would be reflective of exponential testing/ Once again, if you have a stable X percent of people dying from Y, an exponential increase in testing for Y will give the illusion of an exponential increase in Y deaths. As far as ICU admissions, that is an extremely subjective number, based on individual hospital policies; from my conversations with local HCPs, of two patients in the same degree of distress, the one who tests positive will have a greater likelihood of being put into a quarantined ICU for covid cases. There is no sinister reason behind this; its just that the covid patient has a much greater chance or taking a rapid turn for the worse. Anyway, my statement (now downvoted) isn't meant to be controversial. It's just a fact. We have had an exponential increase in testing in many parts of the countries... posting the results and then having a newscaster say, "Look at the scary exponential curve" is absurd. There could be -- and most likely is -- an exponential rise in the number of cases. But, using the graphs without backing out the curve in the testing would get you an F on a freshman statistics quiz.