3 ms·
Indeed. A black swan is something you never thought could exist before because you've only seen white swans. We've had pandemics in the past, though not as seri
by AznHisoka 7y ago
Indeed. A black swan is something you never thought could exist before because you've only seen white swans. We've had pandemics in the past, though not as serious as this one. This is not a black swan, and calling it a black swan just undermines what a black swan is.
- CydeWeys 7y ago> We've had pandemics in the past, though not as serious as this one. There have been much more serious pandemics in the past, way too many to even list here. I'll briefly mention two because we know them well in the western canon -- the 1918 flu epidemic and the black death.
- icedchai 7y agoPlease. I don't remember almost all economic activity ceasing because of AIDS, SARS, or Ebola. I certainly don't remember most of the US being under stay-at-home orders. This particular pandemic is an extreme outlier, so it's a black swan.
- carapace 7y ago> ...and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. ~ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory Everybody forgets that part (which sort of proves the point, eh?)