3 ms·
The relationship between the number of infections and the number of confirmed cases is going to be hugely dependent on the number of tests and how they are dist
by Symmetry 7y ago
The relationship between the number of infections and the number of confirmed cases is going to be hugely dependent on the number of tests and how they are distributed. 80x higher is very plausible but the ratio is going to be very country dependent. I'd be rather surprised if South Korea was more than 2x off, but I could easily see Ethiopia being 5000x off right now.
- guscost 7y agoLooks like South Korea has administered fewer tests per capita than Denmark, but you're right that their numbers could be closer if those tests were more effectively targeted.
- Symmetry 7y agoIf you have fewer infections and are able to allocate your tests to people who came into contact with those infected then you need fewer tests.
- 0xFFC 7y agoWhile what you are saying is logically coherent but it does not work in the real world. How are you going to track all the people the infected people has to contact with? How about asymptotic cases?
- Symmetry 7y agoYou don't have to be perfect, just good enough to get R under 1. It's been working pretty well Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea when combined with moderate social distancing measures.