3 ms·

The prediction assumes containment measures are eased by the end of May.

• yyyk 7y ago
  That's exactly my point. You're comparing COVID with containment measures to a flu without containment measures, and from that you conclude we'll manage COVID without containment and that we'll "live with it like with the flu". That doesn't make sense at all. If there's a second wave, we'll probably need those containment measures again just to bring it down to the flu level.
  • rpiguy 7y ago
    All indications are that COVID does not mutate like the flu, so preceding waves should be mild. Every flu season it’s one of many very different strains. Furthermore we have data from countries that have not locked down that show comparable mortality. This is an illness that needn’t shut down countries once the densely populated areas have their initial outbreaks. Hospitals outside of those areas are so slow hospitals are furloughing workers. The total deaths across the US are down year over year for the month of March. If this were a raging pandemic this would not be the case.
    • yyyk 7y ago
      Countries which have not locked down with comparable mortality? E. Asian countries use a strict screen-and-test routine (+ a few restrictions), and if/when that slips they turn to a lockdown until they can control the outbreak enough to return to screen-and-test (e.g. Singapore just these recent days). That's a data point, but I don't think it supports the 'just get back to usual' POV. The US has far more entry points than Singapore, even after it manages to control the disease internally. The UK abandoned their no-lockdown policy because it didn't work. That leaves us with.. Sweden which doesn't look good at all compared to its neighbours which have locked down?