4 ms·

This plan of collective immunity was only the plan of a few countries, like the UK, and they quickly changed their mind... So I don't think this news change eve

This plan of collective immunity was only the plan of a few countries, like the UK, and they quickly changed their mind... So I don't think this news change everything. Still a bad news though.

StevenWaterman 7y ago
I keep seeing people saying that the UK has given up on herd immunity as an end-goal, but I can't remember the government every saying they'd changed their plan. Do you have a link or a source for that? Having read the reports on the government's initial modelling, it still seems like they're sticking to their initial plan. They recommended enacting social distancing and lockdown measures to keep the infection rate manageable for the NHS, relaxing and tightening the measures to keep the spread at the maximum sustainable rate. Lockdown hasn't been relaxed as the infection rate still hasn't started going down, but their initial 'review in 3 weeks' was based on the incubation period, as they expected to see a slowdown after 3 weeks. The advice said explicitly that social distancing measures would need to be in place for `at least most of a year` and the strictest restrictions would need to be in place for about 6 months. That explains why the UK is still refusing to close businesses, and just recommending that you work from home where possible. While other countries are attempting to stop the spread completely, the UK is trying to keep it at a manageable level. Their judgement is that it's impossible to control this virus unless most of the population is immune, and that it's also impossible to irradicate it through social distancing and lockdown. The only solutions therefore are to stay in lockdown until a vaccine is developed, or let 70% of the population get infected and become naturally immune. They don't think a 12-18 month lockdown is feasible, so they are going for option 2. Within that goal, they are trying to minimise the death toll: * make sure that the 70% infected are young and healthy, with over 70 and anyone at increased risk quarantined inside their homes for 4 months * Keep the infection rate low enough that the NHS is within capacity meaning a mortality rate of ~1% instead of ~5% * Give up on mass testing and containment, asking people to isolate once they notice symptoms - they want people to spread it

This plan of collective immunity was only the plan of a few countries, like the UK, and they quickly changed their mind... So I don't think this news change everything. Still a bad news though.

StevenWaterman 7y ago

I keep seeing people saying that the UK has given up on herd immunity as an end-goal, but I can't remember the government every saying they'd changed their plan. Do you have a link or a source for that? Having read the reports on the government's initial modelling, it still seems like they're sticking to their initial plan. They recommended enacting social distancing and lockdown measures to keep the infection rate manageable for the NHS, relaxing and tightening the measures to keep the spread at the maximum sustainable rate. Lockdown hasn't been relaxed as the infection rate still hasn't started going down, but their initial 'review in 3 weeks' was based on the incubation period, as they expected to see a slowdown after 3 weeks. The advice said explicitly that social distancing measures would need to be in place for `at least most of a year` and the strictest restrictions would need to be in place for about 6 months. That explains why the UK is still refusing to close businesses, and just recommending that you work from home where possible. While other countries are attempting to stop the spread completely, the UK is trying to keep it at a manageable level. Their judgement is that it's impossible to control this virus unless most of the population is immune, and that it's also impossible to irradicate it through social distancing and lockdown. The only solutions therefore are to stay in lockdown until a vaccine is developed, or let 70% of the population get infected and become naturally immune. They don't think a 12-18 month lockdown is feasible, so they are going for option 2. Within that goal, they are trying to minimise the death toll: * make sure that the 70% infected are young and healthy, with over 70 and anyone at increased risk quarantined inside their homes for 4 months * Keep the infection rate low enough that the NHS is within capacity meaning a mortality rate of ~1% instead of ~5% * Give up on mass testing and containment, asking people to isolate once they notice symptoms - they want people to spread it