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Logic says this too. Deadly, contagious virus with no vaccine, which takes roughly 18 months. There aren't too many options. I've heard chatter that big co's s

Logic says this too. Deadly, contagious virus with no vaccine, which takes roughly 18 months. There aren't too many options. I've heard chatter that big co's started telling their employees they're planning 18 months WFH.

rpiguy 6y ago
Logic says just to live with it like we live with the flu and go on with life. The mortality rate is comparable. CDC is projecting 60K deaths if we open up most of the economy by the end of May. In the 2018-2019 flu season flu killed 80,000. Once the disease surge in densely populated ends areas it appears to become quite manageable.
- yyyk 6y ago
  It's a prediction given previous containment measures. Without those measures, a far higher count is predicted. We'll probably wear masks this entire time, and there'll probably another closure next time the disease surges. Until we find an effective treatment or a vaccine.
  - rpiguy 6y ago
    The prediction assumes containment measures are eased by the end of May.
    - yyyk 6y ago
      That's exactly my point. You're comparing COVID with containment measures to a flu without containment measures, and from that you conclude we'll manage COVID without containment and that we'll "live with it like with the flu". That doesn't make sense at all. If there's a second wave, we'll probably need those containment measures again just to bring it down to the flu level.
      - rpiguy 6y ago
        All indications are that COVID does not mutate like the flu, so preceding waves should be mild. Every flu season it’s one of many very different strains. Furthermore we have data from countries that have not locked down that show comparable mortality. This is an illness that needn’t shut down countries once the densely populated areas have their initial outbreaks. Hospitals outside of those areas are so slow hospitals are furloughing workers. The total deaths across the US are down year over year for the month of March. If this were a raging pandemic this would not be the case.
        yyyk 6y ago
        Countries which have not locked down with comparable mortality? E. Asian countries use a strict screen-and-test routine (+ a few restrictions), and if/when that slips they turn to a lockdown until they can control the outbreak enough to return to screen-and-test (e.g. Singapore just these recent days). That's a data point, but I don't think it supports the 'just get back to usual' POV. The US has far more entry points than Singapore, even after it manages to control the disease internally. The UK abandoned their no-lockdown policy because it didn't work. That leaves us with.. Sweden which doesn't look good at all compared to its neighbours which have locked down?
  - lbeltrame 6y ago
    > there'll probably another closure next time the disease surges Honest question: do you think a second quarantine will be as effective as the first? Tracing and isolation after the first quarantine must be as close as spotless as possible, because personally I don't believe that the population will tolerate a second lock-up as easily as the first.
    - yyyk 6y ago
      Hmm.. I think it can be done effectively enough. Public will may decline/increase depending on country and political climate, but enforcement, tracking and treatment mechanisms will have improved everywhere. So a 2nd quarantine need not be as effective as the first, and overall, governments that will want to lock down will be able to do it. The real question is whether a political/economical calculation will delay a 2nd quarantine unnecessarily in cases it is necessary.
      - yyyk 6y ago
        Reading this article[0] things look far worse in Italy than how I thought they are. Still I suspect the state can enforce this. It would be nice if its EU partners offered actual assistance... [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/singing-stops-italy-fear-social-unrest-mount-coronavirus-lockdown https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/singing-stops-...
        lbeltrame 6y ago
        It's not a matter of assistance or not. If you want lockdowns, you have to have plans on when to lift or ease them (even if you just re-evaluate them every two weeks). Governments and their expert panels can't just think that people will "reprogram" themselves to stay away from most social contacts. It's alienating at best and outright dangerous for one's mind at worst. Once the number of cases gets low, it won't be possible, or justifiable, to keep people locked up. Even more so that some countries that were affected after my own have already begun their plans to lift lockdowns (some with definite dates, some without).

rpiguy 6y ago

Logic says just to live with it like we live with the flu and go on with life. The mortality rate is comparable. CDC is projecting 60K deaths if we open up most of the economy by the end of May. In the 2018-2019 flu season flu killed 80,000. Once the disease surge in densely populated ends areas it appears to become quite manageable.

yyyk 6y ago
It's a prediction given previous containment measures. Without those measures, a far higher count is predicted. We'll probably wear masks this entire time, and there'll probably another closure next time the disease surges. Until we find an effective treatment or a vaccine.
- rpiguy 6y ago
  The prediction assumes containment measures are eased by the end of May.
  - yyyk 6y ago
    That's exactly my point. You're comparing COVID with containment measures to a flu without containment measures, and from that you conclude we'll manage COVID without containment and that we'll "live with it like with the flu". That doesn't make sense at all. If there's a second wave, we'll probably need those containment measures again just to bring it down to the flu level.
    - rpiguy 6y ago
      All indications are that COVID does not mutate like the flu, so preceding waves should be mild. Every flu season it’s one of many very different strains. Furthermore we have data from countries that have not locked down that show comparable mortality. This is an illness that needn’t shut down countries once the densely populated areas have their initial outbreaks. Hospitals outside of those areas are so slow hospitals are furloughing workers. The total deaths across the US are down year over year for the month of March. If this were a raging pandemic this would not be the case.
      - yyyk 6y ago
        Countries which have not locked down with comparable mortality? E. Asian countries use a strict screen-and-test routine (+ a few restrictions), and if/when that slips they turn to a lockdown until they can control the outbreak enough to return to screen-and-test (e.g. Singapore just these recent days). That's a data point, but I don't think it supports the 'just get back to usual' POV. The US has far more entry points than Singapore, even after it manages to control the disease internally. The UK abandoned their no-lockdown policy because it didn't work. That leaves us with.. Sweden which doesn't look good at all compared to its neighbours which have locked down?
- lbeltrame 6y ago
  > there'll probably another closure next time the disease surges Honest question: do you think a second quarantine will be as effective as the first? Tracing and isolation after the first quarantine must be as close as spotless as possible, because personally I don't believe that the population will tolerate a second lock-up as easily as the first.
  - yyyk 6y ago
    Hmm.. I think it can be done effectively enough. Public will may decline/increase depending on country and political climate, but enforcement, tracking and treatment mechanisms will have improved everywhere. So a 2nd quarantine need not be as effective as the first, and overall, governments that will want to lock down will be able to do it. The real question is whether a political/economical calculation will delay a 2nd quarantine unnecessarily in cases it is necessary.
    - yyyk 6y ago
      Reading this article[0] things look far worse in Italy than how I thought they are. Still I suspect the state can enforce this. It would be nice if its EU partners offered actual assistance... [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/singing-stops-italy-fear-social-unrest-mount-coronavirus-lockdown https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/singing-stops-...
      - lbeltrame 6y ago
        It's not a matter of assistance or not. If you want lockdowns, you have to have plans on when to lift or ease them (even if you just re-evaluate them every two weeks). Governments and their expert panels can't just think that people will "reprogram" themselves to stay away from most social contacts. It's alienating at best and outright dangerous for one's mind at worst. Once the number of cases gets low, it won't be possible, or justifiable, to keep people locked up. Even more so that some countries that were affected after my own have already begun their plans to lift lockdowns (some with definite dates, some without).