4 ms·

It's easy to be right in hindsight. There was some probability it would've never left China. Let's say the probability was 10% of it leaving. If we need airport

It's easy to be right in hindsight. There was some probability it would've never left China. Let's say the probability was 10% of it leaving. If we need airport screening for a mere 10% chance of a virus potentially entering the U.S., we will always and forever screen people's temperatures at airports -- because there is always that (small) probability of a novel infection entering our borders from somewhere (China is one of 195 countries, after all). Is that what we want? I think it seems to be the case. We could be entering a new normal.

joshstrange 7y ago
> It's easy to be right in hindsight. I'll follow HN guidelines and I won't assume what you mean by that so I'll just ask. When did "hindsight" start? What date do you feel is a good marker for when it was obvious?
- ectospheno 7y ago
  If you personally weren't arguing that people should beware of a pandemic in November then for you hindsight is likely the entire time you've been discussing it.
  - joshstrange 7y ago
    That literally makes no sense. I never said that the minute they got that report they should have jumped into action but rather they got a constant stream of warnings starting in November or around that time. Waiting until March to really act was incorrect. The statement I opposed was that we shouldn’t blame the administration for acting slowly so I’ll rephrase: at what point do you feel like there was enough information to act on? As in, people dragging their feet after this point can be held accountable for their actions (or lack thereof).
  - fao_ 7y ago
    It isn't that they needed to act in November. The virus was only taken seriously by the Chinese in December. However by mid-December no action has been taken by the US government. Only marginal action was seen in January, when it was a sure-fire knowledge that people would have gone to the US not knowing they had it. Even now, there is inadequate provisions and action by the US. It was only in March when the US gov started rolling out testing and screening, finally fully committing to it. If they had started doing what they're doing now, in January, it's likely the US would have been on the tail-end of the pandemic by now.

joshstrange 7y ago

> It's easy to be right in hindsight. I'll follow HN guidelines and I won't assume what you mean by that so I'll just ask. When did "hindsight" start? What date do you feel is a good marker for when it was obvious?

ectospheno 7y ago
If you personally weren't arguing that people should beware of a pandemic in November then for you hindsight is likely the entire time you've been discussing it.
- joshstrange 7y ago
  That literally makes no sense. I never said that the minute they got that report they should have jumped into action but rather they got a constant stream of warnings starting in November or around that time. Waiting until March to really act was incorrect. The statement I opposed was that we shouldn’t blame the administration for acting slowly so I’ll rephrase: at what point do you feel like there was enough information to act on? As in, people dragging their feet after this point can be held accountable for their actions (or lack thereof).
- fao_ 7y ago
  It isn't that they needed to act in November. The virus was only taken seriously by the Chinese in December. However by mid-December no action has been taken by the US government. Only marginal action was seen in January, when it was a sure-fire knowledge that people would have gone to the US not knowing they had it. Even now, there is inadequate provisions and action by the US. It was only in March when the US gov started rolling out testing and screening, finally fully committing to it. If they had started doing what they're doing now, in January, it's likely the US would have been on the tail-end of the pandemic by now.