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From the article: "The first is that it overlooks the negative impacts on consumer sentiment and spending, which are likely to persist for many months, if not y
by david_w 6y ago
From the article:
"The first is that it overlooks the negative impacts on consumer sentiment and spending, which are likely to persist for many months, if not years. "
Yeah, right. Citation needed. My to-buy list of pent-up demands grows longer by the hour.
- tarr11 6y agoThey are not talking about electronics or haircuts. For example, many people have vowed never to step on a cruise ship after this and attending large scale events in person will probably give a lot of people anxiety for some time.
- meddlepal 6y agoHeck even a crowded bar or restaurant is going to give people pause.
- amiga_500 6y agoPause? There is no way I'm taking my family to a crowded restaurant until either full scale frequent testing (with intra-region travel quarantine) proves it's gone or an effective vaccine is deployed at scale, or lastly if some medicine which means you get mild symptoms and no after-effects is developed.
- meddlepal 6y agoExactly, this a whole new ballgame in terms of what kind of businesses are going to be viable. The restaurant and bar industry might be toast and that's going to have big social and cultural impacts.
- david_w 6y agoMan I do not believe this. The restaurant and bar industry cater to the reckless youth segment. Seeing "nothing bad happened" to people you know who are less risk-averse than you is enough to coax people back into herding into bars and restaurants. We herded for a century before anything happened and those are clear memories everyone has, too. What is going to change is the world's attitude toward the Communist regime currently running China. I feel pretty confident in saying that that regime is slated for death, even as public officials and famous people act, in public, like they're willing to get back to normal. This is where some of us have been for a long time. You cannot permit an intolerant, racist, minority persecuting, citizen murdering, dictatorial, totalitarian government armed to the teeth with the latest in biowarfare who is inclined to make aggressive noises towards everyone who is not like them and some who are (Taiwan) to exist, period. I think COVID-19 finally brought that home to everyone who is not just outright anti-Western in their outlook. People are going back to bars and restaurants and jobs, the stock market is going to go up, but the Communist regime in China is going down. That's what the near future looks like.
- meddlepal 6y agoI don't see it. We might be able to sanction China but we cannot do much more than that, and any incredibly rigid sanctions might be seen as an act of war and _nobody_ wants to fight a war with nuclear power China. Maybe it'll be a cold war, but that could take 30 or 40 years to peter out and the CCP does seem a bit more sophisticated than the Soviet's. Not all bars and restaurants cater to "the reckless youth" segment, heck, not even most, because there simply isn't enough money in that segment to keep the industry afloat. We'll see though, fun times ahead!
- pinkfoot 6y ago> that regime is slated for death Care to put a date to your prediction?
- david_w 6y agoSure. Communists gone from China by 2035. Latest. 15 years across multiple administrations across multiple nations. It's just like before WWII. Some people see the mortal danger and realize by hook or by crook something HAS to be done. Some people are suing for "peace in our time". Only one of these camps is right. Guess which one. Say what you want, this is something we DID learn from WWII. Know the signs and don't kid yourself about them. However bad your situation is now, it will only get worse in the future. Covid-19 onboarded the majority of the population in all nations to this little project. Have no doubt.
- amiga_500 6y agoThe USA won't even have most of its supply chain under domestic control by 2035. The response to the virus was typically disorganized and indicative of wider issues. The last 40 years have seen a huge slide in power and credibility, what is going to stop that?
- david_w 6y agoI don't agree with any of your characterizations.
- david_w 6y agoA treatment will be the first through the gate. Then a vaccine. But a treat will be enough to get people out again. That and the discovery through testing that people are immune.
- LeifCarrotson 6y agoMy mom is a nurse. One of her refrains when I was growing up was (and is) "Germs are real!" People who previously didn't think anything of it will, for decades, be aware that if you're indoors and/or closer than six feet from a person who coughs, you will likely inhale airborne droplets that may contain viruses or bacteria from their lungs. I think this was known academically by some, and the risk was calculated and accepted by a few, but most people wouldn't have expected to inhale airborne droplets from someone they pass in a grocery store aisle.
- Invictus0 6y agoPeople said the same thing after Costa Concordia. These people were never going to take a cruise in the first place.
- david_w 6y agoBut that is OK because that money goes elsewhere in the economy. No?
- ebiester 6y agoThey may, however, be talking about replacing the microwave oven that is on the fritz or the things that they really want but can't justify it at the moment.
- eli_gottlieb 6y agoI never did step foot on a cruise ship. The cost/value net-positive was just never there for me.
- Donald 6y agoI assume you're not one of the 17+ million Americans who became unemployed in March? In addition, there will be structural changes to consumption habits. Many meetings will persist online when this is over, creating a drag on demand for airline services. Cruise ships, large sporting events, and concerts will take years to bounce back.
- taneq 6y agoJust wait til you're hungry for a few weeks. I guarantee you're going to be more interested in buying canned beans than in a new iPad.
- dlp211 6y agoYou are likely not the average American consumer.
- taneq 6y agoFrom everything I've read, I'm amazed the average American has enough spare money to consume non-essentials.
- hello_moto 6y agoUSA is a prosperous country. You should check the content of a typical suburban houses.
- bryan_w 6y agoDon't believe everything you read? People online make things sound worse then they are.
- tdfx 6y agoThe loudest complaints are always from the groups in the minority. Lots of people have small businesses who are suffering, or jobs that are basically incompatible with social distancing. But also think: just Bank of America employs 200k+ people. Most of them are still at work, doing their stuff from home, receiving their normal paychecks. Hundreds of thousands of small Amazon sellers and still shipping packages. There's a wide swath of America that's not feeling the pinch and is more eager to consume out of boredom than ever before.
- _curious_ 6y agoAverage is a very loose concept, but many Americans who appear to have steady discretionary income for 'non-essentials' are constantly walking the thin line of living within their means/being broke at best, but worse, in debt.
- drocer88 6y agoA lot of folks are going to take the traditional advice of having 6 months of living expenses in emergency savings seriously this time.
- rwmj 6y agoHow? Many people are paid week to week and have just enough to get by.
- garraeth 6y agoI think the op is suggesting people will consider this once they are again financially stable (assuming they get to that point).
- PaulDavisThe1st 6y agoNot sure what that even means. Many studies over an extended period of time show that a majority of US households cannot deal with a US$400 emergency without taking on more debt.
- briandear 6y agoPerhaps they'll start reducing non-essential purchases. While many people are paycheck-to-paycheck, there are many of those same people that buy things they don't need and incur debts they shouldn't have incurred.
- _curious_ 6y agoExactly. It's like foreign concept to some people to consider the possibility of living within their means and making associated sacrifices.