3 ms·

Or the case fatality rate is a lot lower than we think it is.

• mannykannot 7y ago
  Indeed - there is nothing here to indicate a sudden jump (faster than the already high rate of propagation), while there is good reason to believe that the incidence has been systematically undercounted, on account of the shortage of testing kits. The fatality rate is less likely to be under-counted, if we assume most fatalities are preceded by hospitalization (and often testing.)
• grey-area 7y ago
  This seems increasingly likely.
• whatshisface 7y ago
  That would be infection fatality rate, case fatality rate is what we think it is by definition. (A case is a known case, an infection is an infection.) Quibbles over wording aside, I think the Icelandic data showed us that the percent asymptomatic is about 50%, insufficient for boundless optimism.
  • Symmetry 7y ago
    And IIRC the Icelandic data doesn't tell us if those people were guaranteed to remain asymptomatic or were merely presymptomatic.