7 ms·

Finding out that we all have it already would be one of the more humorous endings to this story.

whatshisface 7y ago
There was some data from Iceland that showed about 50% of cases being asymptomatic. That's more optimistic than we saw originally, but not as optimistic as the most optimistic scenarios proposed.
- monktastic1 7y ago
  There was also this report from northern Italy, where 40 of 60 asymptomatic blood donors were found to have antigens (incorrectly described as antibodies in the article, from what I've been told): https://it.finance.yahoo.com/notizie/coronavirus-castiglione-d-adda-il-065252105.html https://it.finance.yahoo.com/notizie/coronavirus-castiglione...
  - ZitchDog 7y ago
    Antigen is the actual virus.
    - monktastic1 7y ago
      I had understood it to mean viral proteins or RNA and not necessarily the full virus.
- tonfa 7y ago
  And in a hard hit place in Germany it's 14% https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tes... (which matches some of the estimates for Italy)
  - detaro 7y ago
    Please note that how useful the results of that study are is widely debated. Not much detail about the process has been published, it's unclear how reliable the tests used are (other experts say they will likely also trigger for other Corona-viruses) and how representative the sample is (e.g. they did look at individuals, not households).
  - confuseshrink 7y ago
    That article doesn't state that 14% of cases were asymptomatic.
- scurvy 7y ago
  I truly doubt the asymptomatic carrier and spreader myth. People lie to their doctors all the time. Why wouldn't they lie to a stranger taking a poll of their health? Sure, the virus will hit some people much harder than others. There's a component there yet to be discovered. But those exposed must have some sort of response, even if it's just a series of stronger than usual headaches. Stuff like that goes under reported because "oh that was just a random headache". Said person might drink a lot and deal with hangovers so headaches are expected. Whatever. My point is that these studies are not very thorough in following up on the response quality or even a requery 2 weeks later when symptoms got much worse. Lies,damn lies, and statistics from personal health studies.
  - gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
    This is very true. I've personally observed two households where one member had some sort of very nasty flu thing with a dry cough, fever and breathing issues (likely covid but no test available) and other members were just unusually tired and with a tickily throat. The later could be classed as asymptomatic and would never have considered covid but they clearly had some symptoms.
  - Reason077 7y ago
    > "I truly doubt the asymptomatic carrier and spreader myth." I partially agree. If you're infectious, then the virus is multiplying inside your body. Eventually your immune system is going to react to that and you'll feel it. But it's also quite possible that you can be infectious before you feel ill.
    - scurvy 7y ago
      Definitely! That's why I mentioned no lack of requery 2 weeks later. "Oh I was fine then, but now I feel horrible." That is missed in these studies. They're flawed!
  - gnulinux 7y ago
    Why is there being asymptomatic patients unbelievable? You believe some people can die from this virus, and some people can just have headache; but you don't believe some people may have no symptoms. I'm following your reasoning.
- Lewton 7y ago
  50% At the time of testing. Not 50% never showing symptoms at all. Most of them eventually developed symptoms
  - Lewton 7y ago
    Found the source https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/is-icelands-coronavirus-testing-showing-that-50-of-cases-have-no-symptoms/ https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/is-icelands-coronavir...
fsh 7y ago
Austria has just published the results of their first representative study on about 1500 randomly selected people [1]. They found 0.33% infection rate (confidence interval 0.12% to 0.76%). While this figure is somewhat larger than the previously known numbers (still within the confidence band), it pretty much rules out that a large fraction of the population is already infected. [1] https://www.sora.at/nc/news-presse/news/news-einzelansicht/news/covid-19-praevalenz-1006.html https://www.sora.at/nc/news-presse/news/news-einzelansicht/n...
- MikeAmelung 7y ago
  I don't think this rules anything out, because this study was done on throat swab PCR tests. It's entirely possible a much larger percentage of the people in this study had already been exposed and cleared the virus. Not saying that IS the case, just saying it's entirely possible.
  - fsh 7y ago
    I don't see how this theory would be compatible with the rapid rise in hospitalizations and deaths that was observed in the last weeks. If many people had been infected a long time ago, why are they only now starting to get sick?
    - heartbreak 7y ago
      There's a logical inconsistency here. If we assume that the total number of cases is much higher than reported, then the hospitalization rate per infection is driven down by the larger denominator. There's a point at which there are so many total cases that the number of hospitalizations is problematic and noticeable. If we continue to assume that the total number of cases is much higher than reported, the death rate per infection (IFR) is also driven down by the larger denominator.
      - anonymouz 7y ago
        But if we had a large number of undetected cases in the past, then we should also have a large number of undetected cases now, contrary to the study. (Unless we already have herd immunity, but there is no data at all suggesting this.)
Kye 7y ago
I get this reference. But it seems unlikely unless the correlation between preventative measures and drops in cases is coincidence.
mannykannot 7y ago
I realize that your comment is tongue-in-cheek, but if the situation were so (or just if there are a great many asymptomatic cases), then the continuing rapid increase of symptomatic cases would indicate something rather unusual, including, if I am not mistaken, little immunity, in many cases, from a first infection, and second infections being more serious than the first. I vaguely think that there are some diseases like this (or perhaps I am just thinking of allergen sensitization.)
- eternauta3k 7y ago
  Dengue is like this, second infection is really bad.
- cesarb 7y ago
  > and second infections being more serious than the first. I vaguely think that there are some diseases like this (or perhaps I am just thinking of allergen sensitization.) You might be thinking of dengue (which is endemic in my home region). There are four strains of the dengue virus; if you are infected by one strain, and had in the past been infected by a different strain, it increases the risk of the more serious hemorrhagic dengue.
  - mannykannot 7y ago
    Thanks, that is interesting. As far as I know, we are only dealing with one strain here, though there have been enough mutations that it is clear that most cases in New York came via Europe. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html?searchResultPosition=24#link-1316a5b0 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/us/coronavirus-live-updat...
  - ficklepickle 7y ago
    My dad caught dengue. It was nasty. Fortunately not the hemmorhagic variety. It's at least as scary as malaria, but with much less research devoted to it.
  - jhayward 7y ago
    Yes, this is Antibody Dependent Enhancement[1], which is also something that any vaccine will have to rule out through human trials. These sorts of immune system traps and pitfalls are why vaccine testing takes so long. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement
yters 7y ago
My family lives in Maryland, and we're pretty sure we caught covid-19 back in February. A disease suddenly came out of nowhere in our daughter's daycare, put one child in the hospital with severe pneumonia, and our daughter had diarrhea, upset stomach, and fever for over a week. My wife caught a cough that stayed with her for many weeks, and at times had trouble breathing. This was before we even knew much about covid-19, nor were taking it seriously.

There was some data from Iceland that showed about 50% of cases being asymptomatic. That's more optimistic than we saw originally, but not as optimistic as the most optimistic scenarios proposed.

monktastic1 7y ago
There was also this report from northern Italy, where 40 of 60 asymptomatic blood donors were found to have antigens (incorrectly described as antibodies in the article, from what I've been told): https://it.finance.yahoo.com/notizie/coronavirus-castiglione-d-adda-il-065252105.html https://it.finance.yahoo.com/notizie/coronavirus-castiglione...
- ZitchDog 7y ago
  Antigen is the actual virus.
  - monktastic1 7y ago
    I had understood it to mean viral proteins or RNA and not necessarily the full virus.
tonfa 7y ago
And in a hard hit place in Germany it's 14% https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tes... (which matches some of the estimates for Italy)
- detaro 7y ago
  Please note that how useful the results of that study are is widely debated. Not much detail about the process has been published, it's unclear how reliable the tests used are (other experts say they will likely also trigger for other Corona-viruses) and how representative the sample is (e.g. they did look at individuals, not households).
- confuseshrink 7y ago
  That article doesn't state that 14% of cases were asymptomatic.
scurvy 7y ago
I truly doubt the asymptomatic carrier and spreader myth. People lie to their doctors all the time. Why wouldn't they lie to a stranger taking a poll of their health? Sure, the virus will hit some people much harder than others. There's a component there yet to be discovered. But those exposed must have some sort of response, even if it's just a series of stronger than usual headaches. Stuff like that goes under reported because "oh that was just a random headache". Said person might drink a lot and deal with hangovers so headaches are expected. Whatever. My point is that these studies are not very thorough in following up on the response quality or even a requery 2 weeks later when symptoms got much worse. Lies,damn lies, and statistics from personal health studies.
- gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
  This is very true. I've personally observed two households where one member had some sort of very nasty flu thing with a dry cough, fever and breathing issues (likely covid but no test available) and other members were just unusually tired and with a tickily throat. The later could be classed as asymptomatic and would never have considered covid but they clearly had some symptoms.
- Reason077 7y ago
  > "I truly doubt the asymptomatic carrier and spreader myth." I partially agree. If you're infectious, then the virus is multiplying inside your body. Eventually your immune system is going to react to that and you'll feel it. But it's also quite possible that you can be infectious before you feel ill.
  - scurvy 7y ago
    Definitely! That's why I mentioned no lack of requery 2 weeks later. "Oh I was fine then, but now I feel horrible." That is missed in these studies. They're flawed!
- gnulinux 7y ago
  Why is there being asymptomatic patients unbelievable? You believe some people can die from this virus, and some people can just have headache; but you don't believe some people may have no symptoms. I'm following your reasoning.
Lewton 7y ago
50% At the time of testing. Not 50% never showing symptoms at all. Most of them eventually developed symptoms
- Lewton 7y ago
  Found the source https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/is-icelands-coronavirus-testing-showing-that-50-of-cases-have-no-symptoms/ https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/is-icelands-coronavir...

fsh 7y ago

Austria has just published the results of their first representative study on about 1500 randomly selected people [1]. They found 0.33% infection rate (confidence interval 0.12% to 0.76%). While this figure is somewhat larger than the previously known numbers (still within the confidence band), it pretty much rules out that a large fraction of the population is already infected. [1] https://www.sora.at/nc/news-presse/news/news-einzelansicht/news/covid-19-praevalenz-1006.html https://www.sora.at/nc/news-presse/news/news-einzelansicht/n...

MikeAmelung 7y ago
I don't think this rules anything out, because this study was done on throat swab PCR tests. It's entirely possible a much larger percentage of the people in this study had already been exposed and cleared the virus. Not saying that IS the case, just saying it's entirely possible.
- fsh 7y ago
  I don't see how this theory would be compatible with the rapid rise in hospitalizations and deaths that was observed in the last weeks. If many people had been infected a long time ago, why are they only now starting to get sick?
  - heartbreak 7y ago
    There's a logical inconsistency here. If we assume that the total number of cases is much higher than reported, then the hospitalization rate per infection is driven down by the larger denominator. There's a point at which there are so many total cases that the number of hospitalizations is problematic and noticeable. If we continue to assume that the total number of cases is much higher than reported, the death rate per infection (IFR) is also driven down by the larger denominator.
    - anonymouz 7y ago
      But if we had a large number of undetected cases in the past, then we should also have a large number of undetected cases now, contrary to the study. (Unless we already have herd immunity, but there is no data at all suggesting this.)

Kye 7y ago

I get this reference. But it seems unlikely unless the correlation between preventative measures and drops in cases is coincidence.

mannykannot 7y ago

I realize that your comment is tongue-in-cheek, but if the situation were so (or just if there are a great many asymptomatic cases), then the continuing rapid increase of symptomatic cases would indicate something rather unusual, including, if I am not mistaken, little immunity, in many cases, from a first infection, and second infections being more serious than the first. I vaguely think that there are some diseases like this (or perhaps I am just thinking of allergen sensitization.)

eternauta3k 7y ago
Dengue is like this, second infection is really bad.
cesarb 7y ago
> and second infections being more serious than the first. I vaguely think that there are some diseases like this (or perhaps I am just thinking of allergen sensitization.) You might be thinking of dengue (which is endemic in my home region). There are four strains of the dengue virus; if you are infected by one strain, and had in the past been infected by a different strain, it increases the risk of the more serious hemorrhagic dengue.
- mannykannot 7y ago
  Thanks, that is interesting. As far as I know, we are only dealing with one strain here, though there have been enough mutations that it is clear that most cases in New York came via Europe. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html?searchResultPosition=24#link-1316a5b0 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/us/coronavirus-live-updat...
- ficklepickle 7y ago
  My dad caught dengue. It was nasty. Fortunately not the hemmorhagic variety. It's at least as scary as malaria, but with much less research devoted to it.
- jhayward 7y ago
  Yes, this is Antibody Dependent Enhancement[1], which is also something that any vaccine will have to rule out through human trials. These sorts of immune system traps and pitfalls are why vaccine testing takes so long. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement

yters 7y ago

My family lives in Maryland, and we're pretty sure we caught covid-19 back in February. A disease suddenly came out of nowhere in our daughter's daycare, put one child in the hospital with severe pneumonia, and our daughter had diarrhea, upset stomach, and fever for over a week. My wife caught a cough that stayed with her for many weeks, and at times had trouble breathing. This was before we even knew much about covid-19, nor were taking it seriously.