2 ms·

Nobody knows the true infection fatality rate. Probably the best estimate we can make is from South Korea where they have done a pretty good job of testing ever

Nobody knows the true infection fatality rate. Probably the best estimate we can make is from South Korea where they have done a pretty good job of testing everyone infected. There the infection fatality rate is 1.8% and rising as the cases age out and people in the ICUs die.

nabla9 7y ago
> Nobody known the true infection fatality rate. It can be estimated with increasing accuracy. > There the infection fatality rate is 1.8% and rising as the cases age out and people in the ICUs die. You continue citing case fatality rate (CFR) numbers and call them infection fatality rate numbers (IFR). Can you please go back to your sources and read what they say. I bet they are case fatality rates. In South Korea one IFR estimates put the number around 0.4 and 0.7%. Here are some IFR estimates: 1. Estimating the infection fatality rate of COVID 19 in South Korea by using time series correlations https://figshare.com/articles/Estimating_the_infection_fatality_rate_of_COVID_19_in_South_Korea_by_using_time_series_correlations/12083322 https://figshare.com/articles/Estimating_the_infection_fatal... 2. Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.E... 3. Using early data to estimate the actual infection fatality ratio from COVID-19 in France https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040915v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040915v... 4. Robust Estimation of Infection Fatality Rates during the Early Phase of a Pandemic https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057729v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057729v...
- danieltillett 7y ago
  These lower estimates are all estimates. Really it is not important from the perspective of doing something about this pandemic as a huge number of people will die at all estimated levels.
  - nabla9 7y ago
    Maybe you can now correct the "killing between 1% to 3.5% of the people it infects" part. It's horribly misleading. IFR < CFR and IFR estimates go always down over time and never up due to the skewed nature of the data. Antibody tests are coming in already and based on them you get very accurate numbers.
    - danieltillett 7y ago
      I am going to update the post this morning - lots of good feedback from people here on which sections are confusing. I will update this section :)

nabla9 7y ago

> Nobody known the true infection fatality rate. It can be estimated with increasing accuracy. > There the infection fatality rate is 1.8% and rising as the cases age out and people in the ICUs die. You continue citing case fatality rate (CFR) numbers and call them infection fatality rate numbers (IFR). Can you please go back to your sources and read what they say. I bet they are case fatality rates. In South Korea one IFR estimates put the number around 0.4 and 0.7%. Here are some IFR estimates: 1. Estimating the infection fatality rate of COVID 19 in South Korea by using time series correlations https://figshare.com/articles/Estimating_the_infection_fatality_rate_of_COVID_19_in_South_Korea_by_using_time_series_correlations/12083322 https://figshare.com/articles/Estimating_the_infection_fatal... 2. Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.E... 3. Using early data to estimate the actual infection fatality ratio from COVID-19 in France https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040915v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040915v... 4. Robust Estimation of Infection Fatality Rates during the Early Phase of a Pandemic https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057729v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057729v...

danieltillett 7y ago
These lower estimates are all estimates. Really it is not important from the perspective of doing something about this pandemic as a huge number of people will die at all estimated levels.
- nabla9 7y ago
  Maybe you can now correct the "killing between 1% to 3.5% of the people it infects" part. It's horribly misleading. IFR < CFR and IFR estimates go always down over time and never up due to the skewed nature of the data. Antibody tests are coming in already and based on them you get very accurate numbers.
  - danieltillett 7y ago
    I am going to update the post this morning - lots of good feedback from people here on which sections are confusing. I will update this section :)