5 ms·

I'm not qualified to assess the risk, but if the there's indeed ADE (antibody dependent enhancement),[1][2] people once infected with a milder strain may suffer

I'm not qualified to assess the risk, but if the there's indeed ADE (antibody dependent enhancement),[1][2] people once infected with a milder strain may suffer from more severe symptom from the deadlier strains, thus killing more people in the end. I'm wondering how we may rule out this worst case scenario. [1] Is COVID-19 receiving ADE from other coronaviruses? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1286457920300344 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S128645792... [2] New blood tests for antibodies could show true scale of coronavirus pandemic https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-antibodies-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-anti...

danieltillett 6y ago
ADE is more a problem for the vaccine approaches. It is one reason we may never have a vaccine for this disease. Hard to rule out worst case scenarios, we just have to work with what we have and make hard choices.
- twomoretime 6y ago
  >ADE is more a problem for the vaccine approaches. It is one reason we may never have a vaccine for this disease. This is at least partly why there are no SARS/MERS vaccines. There's a paper I'll try to dig up where 4-8 (can't remember) modified vaccine candidates were tested in multiple animal species, and in each case except one, immunity was conferred but exposure to the virus lead to a dangerous autoimmune response which destroyed lung tissue.
  - wbl 6y ago
    That's not ADE as I understand it. ADE is where the virus gets grabbed more easily by cells thanks to the antibodies on it proving handles.
    - twomoretime 6y ago
      Well yes, because of ADE the normal antibodies released by the immune response immediately increase the replication rate so you have a far more severe reaction upon infection than you would otherwise. That's why I'm waiting for confirmation of immunity. So far I've only seen increasing numbers of reports of reinfection but that may just be faulty testing.
  - hilbertseries 6y ago
    My understanding is that we had SARS vaccine candidates ready for human testing, but funding died off once SARS disappeared.
- Amygaz 6y ago
  What about Dengue?
  - danieltillett 6y ago
    Dengue is a different virus. All viruses behave differently.
    - Amygaz 6y ago
      Wow. What an answer. All flaviviruses cause ADE. Only few attenuated vaccines worked as a strategy. And no they don't shed.
- temac 6y ago
  Maybe in this context, making a "hard choice" is accepting that something like 0.3% of the world population dies? Historically we saw worse and recovered, while trying to engineer something with no guarantee it won't be massively worse, using an unprecedented and more or less unstoppable strategy, might not be the most prudent thing to do. Looks like a good movie plot though.
  - radu_floricica 6y ago
    We don't have that option, unfortunately. In real life we're dealing with hospitals permanently jammed and new covid patients keep dying every 6 months, plus the huge economic costs from keeping hospitals _at_ capacity as opposed to 10x over capacity.
    - sfj 6y ago
      If the total cost is under $6 trillion, I think the Fed can swing it.
nolta 6y ago
Article [1] is dated Feb 12, and contains the sentence: "Instead, it [SARS-CoV-2] appears to be no more concerning than the influenza virus." The citation for this claim is an article in Canada's National Post.

danieltillett 6y ago

ADE is more a problem for the vaccine approaches. It is one reason we may never have a vaccine for this disease. Hard to rule out worst case scenarios, we just have to work with what we have and make hard choices.

twomoretime 6y ago
>ADE is more a problem for the vaccine approaches. It is one reason we may never have a vaccine for this disease. This is at least partly why there are no SARS/MERS vaccines. There's a paper I'll try to dig up where 4-8 (can't remember) modified vaccine candidates were tested in multiple animal species, and in each case except one, immunity was conferred but exposure to the virus lead to a dangerous autoimmune response which destroyed lung tissue.
- wbl 6y ago
  That's not ADE as I understand it. ADE is where the virus gets grabbed more easily by cells thanks to the antibodies on it proving handles.
  - twomoretime 6y ago
    Well yes, because of ADE the normal antibodies released by the immune response immediately increase the replication rate so you have a far more severe reaction upon infection than you would otherwise. That's why I'm waiting for confirmation of immunity. So far I've only seen increasing numbers of reports of reinfection but that may just be faulty testing.
- hilbertseries 6y ago
  My understanding is that we had SARS vaccine candidates ready for human testing, but funding died off once SARS disappeared.
Amygaz 6y ago
What about Dengue?
- danieltillett 6y ago
  Dengue is a different virus. All viruses behave differently.
  - Amygaz 6y ago
    Wow. What an answer. All flaviviruses cause ADE. Only few attenuated vaccines worked as a strategy. And no they don't shed.
temac 6y ago
Maybe in this context, making a "hard choice" is accepting that something like 0.3% of the world population dies? Historically we saw worse and recovered, while trying to engineer something with no guarantee it won't be massively worse, using an unprecedented and more or less unstoppable strategy, might not be the most prudent thing to do. Looks like a good movie plot though.
- radu_floricica 6y ago
  We don't have that option, unfortunately. In real life we're dealing with hospitals permanently jammed and new covid patients keep dying every 6 months, plus the huge economic costs from keeping hospitals _at_ capacity as opposed to 10x over capacity.
  - sfj 6y ago
    If the total cost is under $6 trillion, I think the Fed can swing it.

nolta 6y ago

Article [1] is dated Feb 12, and contains the sentence: "Instead, it [SARS-CoV-2] appears to be no more concerning than the influenza virus." The citation for this claim is an article in Canada's National Post.