3 ms·

This goes contrary to what other studies have found. In the Stockholm metropolitan area they found that 2.5% percent of the population was infected [1]. In in a

This goes contrary to what other studies have found. In the Stockholm metropolitan area they found that 2.5% percent of the population was infected [1]. In in a community in Germany, which was the epicenter of the outbreak for a time, they found that 15% of the population tested positive for antibodies [2]. In Iceland they found that 88-93% of the infections are undetected [3]. [1] https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/april/resultat-fran-undersokning-av-forekomsten-av-covid-19-i-region-stockholm/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhets... [2] https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwis... [3] http://www.igmchicago.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Covid_Iceland_v10.pdfhttp://www.igmchicago.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Covid_Iceland_v10.pdf http://www.igmchicago.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Covid_I...

rmu09 6y ago
I don't think it is actually contrary to those other studies. The austrian study randomly selected among the whole population whereas the german study used a cluster connected to a hot-spot. IMO it is measures like social distancing in place for more than 3 weeks at the time of sample-taking in austria that reflect in the data.
- FiberBundle 6y ago
  It does. The german study was conducted in a town that was relatively heavily tested during its outbreak, and only recorded 2.5% official infections in the population of that town, so the german study showed the actual number to be 7 times as high. This Austrian study found this number to be only ~2.5 times as high. Germany and Austria overall seem to test fairly similarly.
  - rmu09 6y ago
    The austrian number says currently active cases are probably 2.5 times as much as official numbers. German study says in a community linked to an outbreak, there are 14% immune and 2% to be shedding viral DNA. Austrian study didn't include antibody test (yet).
guscost 6y ago
Is my translation incomplete, or did that German study use a test with unreported sensitivity (but >99% specificity)? 15% could be closer to a lower bound, if so. On top of that, other research indicates some folks might be recovering without developing antibodies at all (they could be clearing the infection with only their innate immune systems). In that case we couldn't be totally sure about the upper bound anytime soon: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047365v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047365v... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innate_immune_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innate_immune_system

rmu09 6y ago

I don't think it is actually contrary to those other studies. The austrian study randomly selected among the whole population whereas the german study used a cluster connected to a hot-spot. IMO it is measures like social distancing in place for more than 3 weeks at the time of sample-taking in austria that reflect in the data.

FiberBundle 6y ago
It does. The german study was conducted in a town that was relatively heavily tested during its outbreak, and only recorded 2.5% official infections in the population of that town, so the german study showed the actual number to be 7 times as high. This Austrian study found this number to be only ~2.5 times as high. Germany and Austria overall seem to test fairly similarly.
- rmu09 6y ago
  The austrian number says currently active cases are probably 2.5 times as much as official numbers. German study says in a community linked to an outbreak, there are 14% immune and 2% to be shedding viral DNA. Austrian study didn't include antibody test (yet).

guscost 6y ago

Is my translation incomplete, or did that German study use a test with unreported sensitivity (but >99% specificity)? 15% could be closer to a lower bound, if so. On top of that, other research indicates some folks might be recovering without developing antibodies at all (they could be clearing the infection with only their innate immune systems). In that case we couldn't be totally sure about the upper bound anytime soon: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047365v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047365v... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innate_immune_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innate_immune_system