3 ms·

The results of a study in austria with 1500 randomly selected citizens have just been published, just 5 have been found to be currently infected with SARS-CoV2.

• danieltillett 7y ago
  We are really more interested in mild cases, not asymptomatic cases. The evidence seems to be that most asymptomatic infections go on to show some symptoms at a later date.
  • rmu09 7y ago
    They didn't really say asymptomatic or mild case, but presumably people with (strong) symptoms would have gotten a test and already be in the official statistics. The next study that is currently being prepared will include antibody-tests, but it seems logistics and which test to use is not a trivial matter.
• FiberBundle 7y ago
  This goes contrary to what other studies have found. In the Stockholm metropolitan area they found that 2.5% percent of the population was infected [1]. In in a community in Germany, which was the epicenter of the outbreak for a time, they found that 15% of the population tested positive for antibodies [2]. In Iceland they found that 88-93% of the infections are undetected [3]. [1] https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/april/resultat-fran-undersokning-av-forekomsten-av-covid-19-i-region-stockholm/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhets... [2] https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwis... [3] http://www.igmchicago.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Covid_Iceland_v10.pdfhttp://www.igmchicago.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Covid_Iceland_v10.pdf http://www.igmchicago.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Covid_I...
  • rmu09 7y ago
    I don't think it is actually contrary to those other studies. The austrian study randomly selected among the whole population whereas the german study used a cluster connected to a hot-spot. IMO it is measures like social distancing in place for more than 3 weeks at the time of sample-taking in austria that reflect in the data.
    • FiberBundle 7y ago
      It does. The german study was conducted in a town that was relatively heavily tested during its outbreak, and only recorded 2.5% official infections in the population of that town, so the german study showed the actual number to be 7 times as high. This Austrian study found this number to be only ~2.5 times as high. Germany and Austria overall seem to test fairly similarly.
      • rmu09 7y ago
        The austrian number says currently active cases are probably 2.5 times as much as official numbers. German study says in a community linked to an outbreak, there are 14% immune and 2% to be shedding viral DNA. Austrian study didn't include antibody test (yet).
  • guscost 7y ago
    Is my translation incomplete, or did that German study use a test with unreported sensitivity (but >99% specificity)? 15% could be closer to a lower bound, if so. On top of that, other research indicates some folks might be recovering without developing antibodies at all (they could be clearing the infection with only their innate immune systems). In that case we couldn't be totally sure about the upper bound anytime soon: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047365v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047365v... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innate_immune_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innate_immune_system