I really like the neher lab prediction tool. https://neherlab.org/covid19 https://neherlab.org/covid19 You can choose different scenarios and compare it with

I really like the neher lab prediction tool. https://neherlab.org/covid19 https://neherlab.org/covid19 You can choose different scenarios and compare it with real data. So you can match the parameters of your model to the actual measured data (number of deaths) and it also has data about the population and the state of ICUs and hospitals that you can use in your prediction. In the end it is just a tool which can give completely wrong predictions, but you get a felling for what could and could not happen.