4 ms·

>What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case How about 10 to 50 million ? I live in Nigeria.

>What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case How about 10 to 50 million ? I live in Nigeria. Between December and late February, many people in Nigeria and Ghana report experiencing symptoms similar to those that could be caused moderate COVID-19 infection. These included, fever, diarhoea, cough, sore throat, malaise. Many physicians and scientists I know think it we may have had a mild outbreak of the disease. If so, was this reduced severity due to a mild strain of the virus or to other factors ? It warrants investigation. Your proposal and the theory underlying it make a lot of sense. I would really like to be able to dig deeper into this.

cc81 7y ago
That is also the symptoms of the ordinary flu which is the more likely candidate.
- benibela 7y ago
  Lassa fever also occurs often in Nigeria
  - Lordarminius 7y ago
    What's the relationship between Lassa fever and covid-19 ?
    - benibela 7y ago
      People get a fever, and think it is covid, but it is actually lassa
      - Lordarminius 7y ago
        Look up the symptoms of lassa fever. It could not possibly be confused for anything else. Besides, it occurs in specific locales.
        benibela 7y ago
        >In 80% of those who are infected little or no symptoms occur. These mild symptoms may include fever, tiredness, weakness, and headache. Those are also covid symptoms
jopsen 7y ago
The median age in Nigeria is 18.4 years, while in Italy it's 45.5 years. Nigeria might have more immunocompromised people due to AIDS. But is there any reliable accounting of deaths, much less the reason? In any case, I wouldn't be surprised if age and lack of accounting is why you don't see a problem in Nigeria. Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_...
- Lordarminius 7y ago
  1. Age is not the main factor at play here. While the median age is lower than Italy's there are still a lot of elderly people in Nigeria. On an age and population adjusted basis, Nigeria has nowhere near the number of cases and deaths as Italy. 2. The demographic profile and phylogenetic makeup of Nigeria is similar to Cameroon which has experienced more cases and deaths than Nigeria in both absolute numbers and on a pro-rata basis. This makes some of us believe we are dealing with two different circulating strains in both countries. 3. It definitely is the case that testing is not adequate but a highly susceptible affected population would soon be revealed by the number of symptomatic cases and, (more to the point), deaths. Both indices have remained relatively low
robocat 7y ago
If you are part of a cluster of a viral infection and you suspect Covid, then look for Anosmia as a symptom. Anosmia is reported in 30%+ of Covid cases. Flu/cold viruses can cause Anosmia but it obviously isn’t common since you don’t hear about it and it isn’t given in lists expected symptoms. Within a sample of 10 people that have Covid, you have an expected number of people that would have Anosmia. https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/push-to-include-anosmia-as-recognised-covid-19-sym https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/push-to-include-an... Beware of false information https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/lost-your-sense-of-smell-it-may-not-be-coronavirus/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/lost-your... because AFAIK the journalist has incorrect thinking: “flus and colds are a common cause of Anosmia” DOESN’T mean that “Anosmia is a common symptom” (the abstract they reference is poorly written, still poor journalism IMHO). I would appreciate any references to data showing how uncommon Anosmia is in cold/flu patients (I did look, but didn’t look hard).

cc81 7y ago

That is also the symptoms of the ordinary flu which is the more likely candidate.

benibela 7y ago
Lassa fever also occurs often in Nigeria
- Lordarminius 7y ago
  What's the relationship between Lassa fever and covid-19 ?
  - benibela 7y ago
    People get a fever, and think it is covid, but it is actually lassa
    - Lordarminius 7y ago
      Look up the symptoms of lassa fever. It could not possibly be confused for anything else. Besides, it occurs in specific locales.
      - benibela 7y ago
        >In 80% of those who are infected little or no symptoms occur. These mild symptoms may include fever, tiredness, weakness, and headache. Those are also covid symptoms

jopsen 7y ago

The median age in Nigeria is 18.4 years, while in Italy it's 45.5 years. Nigeria might have more immunocompromised people due to AIDS. But is there any reliable accounting of deaths, much less the reason? In any case, I wouldn't be surprised if age and lack of accounting is why you don't see a problem in Nigeria. Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_...

Lordarminius 7y ago
1. Age is not the main factor at play here. While the median age is lower than Italy's there are still a lot of elderly people in Nigeria. On an age and population adjusted basis, Nigeria has nowhere near the number of cases and deaths as Italy. 2. The demographic profile and phylogenetic makeup of Nigeria is similar to Cameroon which has experienced more cases and deaths than Nigeria in both absolute numbers and on a pro-rata basis. This makes some of us believe we are dealing with two different circulating strains in both countries. 3. It definitely is the case that testing is not adequate but a highly susceptible affected population would soon be revealed by the number of symptomatic cases and, (more to the point), deaths. Both indices have remained relatively low

robocat 7y ago

If you are part of a cluster of a viral infection and you suspect Covid, then look for Anosmia as a symptom. Anosmia is reported in 30%+ of Covid cases. Flu/cold viruses can cause Anosmia but it obviously isn’t common since you don’t hear about it and it isn’t given in lists expected symptoms. Within a sample of 10 people that have Covid, you have an expected number of people that would have Anosmia. https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/push-to-include-anosmia-as-recognised-covid-19-sym https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/push-to-include-an... Beware of false information https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/lost-your-sense-of-smell-it-may-not-be-coronavirus/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/lost-your... because AFAIK the journalist has incorrect thinking: “flus and colds are a common cause of Anosmia” DOESN’T mean that “Anosmia is a common symptom” (the abstract they reference is poorly written, still poor journalism IMHO). I would appreciate any references to data showing how uncommon Anosmia is in cold/flu patients (I did look, but didn’t look hard).