6 ms·

Virus can be asymptomatic for a number of reasons. Host factors, such as age, (speculation) history of the previous coronavirus but not covid-19 infections, et

Virus can be asymptomatic for a number of reasons. Host factors, such as age, (speculation) history of the previous coronavirus but not covid-19 infections, etc. Going after covid-19 genomes in a group of asymptomatic and symptomatic 70+ years old with sampling from different regions/countries may give us better data. Finding a mutated strain which never gives symptoms in old people from diverse locations, diet, health status etc. is the holy grail of this approach.

danieltillett 7y ago
Yes. What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case.
- londons_explore 7y ago
  You probably won't find that... You might find a strain where 99.9% of people get a mild case. Who is going to be the person to recommend deliberately spreading that strain to the world population, knowing that 0.1% of the world, 7 million people, will end up in a hospital and die? Sure, overall, fewer people might die, but the reality is whichever world leader makes that call has effectively just signed a death warrant for 7 million people. That isn't the way to get re-elected.
  - danieltillett 7y ago
    I think we can do better than 0.1% death rate. In principle there is no reason we can’t find a strain that is no more dangerous than the coronaviruses that cause the common cold. One thing is certain and that is unless we go out and look we won’t find anything.
    - Lordarminius 7y ago
      @danieltillett I could quickly put together a team focused on southern Nigeria and Ghana to find through word of mouth, medical records, contact tracing lists and social media, people who have experienced covid-19 symptoms and are likely to have had the disease. My team would also collect samples from people in the worst affected areas who are asymptomatic. In this way, we could collect data and enough samples to isolate a(?the) virus if any. Do you know any organisations that could provide funding and support for this ?
      - danieltillett 7y ago
        It is probably best to contact me offline. My email details are on my website.
  - pedrocr 7y ago
    0.1% would be great. That's the mortality of the regular flu and we have ramped up the hospitals to cope already so the 0.1% severe cases would be better handled. That would be much better than we manage the flu. It would also make it actually possible to take risk groups and isolate only those for a longer time without crashing the economy. It would be the opposite of the flu where vaccination is focused on risk groups.
  - elmolino89 7y ago
    Agreed. But for the heard immunity one does not have to go and vaccinate/expose to an attenuated strain of virus the whole population. Even getting a majority of say under 50yo immunized should have a big effect. These are special times. In reality it does not matter if this 0.1% +70yo will die after vaccination since the mortality rates in this age group infected with the wild type are bigger by about two orders of magnitude. But out of concern to human rights it will make sense not only to exclude any immunocompromised people but also make it voluntary to the groups where mortality rates are at certain level.
  - biolurker1 7y ago
    You would infect on purpose the 80% of the less vulnerable population for herd immunity
- Lordarminius 7y ago
  >What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case How about 10 to 50 million ? I live in Nigeria. Between December and late February, many people in Nigeria and Ghana report experiencing symptoms similar to those that could be caused moderate COVID-19 infection. These included, fever, diarhoea, cough, sore throat, malaise. Many physicians and scientists I know think it we may have had a mild outbreak of the disease. If so, was this reduced severity due to a mild strain of the virus or to other factors ? It warrants investigation. Your proposal and the theory underlying it make a lot of sense. I would really like to be able to dig deeper into this.
  - cc81 7y ago
    That is also the symptoms of the ordinary flu which is the more likely candidate.
    - benibela 7y ago
      Lassa fever also occurs often in Nigeria
      - Lordarminius 7y ago
        What's the relationship between Lassa fever and covid-19 ?
        benibela 7y ago
        People get a fever, and think it is covid, but it is actually lassa
        Lordarminius 7y ago
        Look up the symptoms of lassa fever. It could not possibly be confused for anything else. Besides, it occurs in specific locales.

danieltillett 7y ago

Yes. What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case.

londons_explore 7y ago
You probably won't find that... You might find a strain where 99.9% of people get a mild case. Who is going to be the person to recommend deliberately spreading that strain to the world population, knowing that 0.1% of the world, 7 million people, will end up in a hospital and die? Sure, overall, fewer people might die, but the reality is whichever world leader makes that call has effectively just signed a death warrant for 7 million people. That isn't the way to get re-elected.
- danieltillett 7y ago
  I think we can do better than 0.1% death rate. In principle there is no reason we can’t find a strain that is no more dangerous than the coronaviruses that cause the common cold. One thing is certain and that is unless we go out and look we won’t find anything.
  - Lordarminius 7y ago
    @danieltillett I could quickly put together a team focused on southern Nigeria and Ghana to find through word of mouth, medical records, contact tracing lists and social media, people who have experienced covid-19 symptoms and are likely to have had the disease. My team would also collect samples from people in the worst affected areas who are asymptomatic. In this way, we could collect data and enough samples to isolate a(?the) virus if any. Do you know any organisations that could provide funding and support for this ?
    - danieltillett 7y ago
      It is probably best to contact me offline. My email details are on my website.
- pedrocr 7y ago
  0.1% would be great. That's the mortality of the regular flu and we have ramped up the hospitals to cope already so the 0.1% severe cases would be better handled. That would be much better than we manage the flu. It would also make it actually possible to take risk groups and isolate only those for a longer time without crashing the economy. It would be the opposite of the flu where vaccination is focused on risk groups.
- elmolino89 7y ago
  Agreed. But for the heard immunity one does not have to go and vaccinate/expose to an attenuated strain of virus the whole population. Even getting a majority of say under 50yo immunized should have a big effect. These are special times. In reality it does not matter if this 0.1% +70yo will die after vaccination since the mortality rates in this age group infected with the wild type are bigger by about two orders of magnitude. But out of concern to human rights it will make sense not only to exclude any immunocompromised people but also make it voluntary to the groups where mortality rates are at certain level.
- biolurker1 7y ago
  You would infect on purpose the 80% of the less vulnerable population for herd immunity
Lordarminius 7y ago
>What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case How about 10 to 50 million ? I live in Nigeria. Between December and late February, many people in Nigeria and Ghana report experiencing symptoms similar to those that could be caused moderate COVID-19 infection. These included, fever, diarhoea, cough, sore throat, malaise. Many physicians and scientists I know think it we may have had a mild outbreak of the disease. If so, was this reduced severity due to a mild strain of the virus or to other factors ? It warrants investigation. Your proposal and the theory underlying it make a lot of sense. I would really like to be able to dig deeper into this.
- cc81 7y ago
  That is also the symptoms of the ordinary flu which is the more likely candidate.
  - benibela 7y ago
    Lassa fever also occurs often in Nigeria
    - Lordarminius 7y ago
      What's the relationship between Lassa fever and covid-19 ?
      - benibela 7y ago
        People get a fever, and think it is covid, but it is actually lassa
        Lordarminius 7y ago
        Look up the symptoms of lassa fever. It could not possibly be confused for anything else. Besides, it occurs in specific locales.