4 ms·
Considering that we are now in a shutdown, and assuming that most symptomatic people do get tested and isolate themselves, doesnt that mean there is pressure fo
by buboard 6y ago
Considering that we are now in a shutdown, and assuming that most symptomatic people do get tested and isolate themselves, doesnt that mean there is pressure for asymptomatic strains to evolve and keep spreading faster in the population anyway? they would be more likely to exist in the early epidemics, specifically south korea which aggressively quarantines people, but does not impose lockdowns, letting the asymptomatic spread
- danieltillett 6y agoThere is really no selection pressure on the current dangerous strain right now. If it was killing 50-60% of people infected then yes the selection pressure would be there, but at a death rate of 1.5%-2% there basically is very little selection pressure on the timescales we are interested in. It doesn’t really matter to us today if this virus eventually becomes less dangerous in the next 500 years. We need to speed things up a little.
- buboard 6y ago> If it was killing 50-60% of people infected then yes the selection pressure would be there it isnt killing, but it's isolating them, preventing its spread
- notahacker 6y agoThat's already baked in to human responses to suspected COVID-19 though, and a chance mutation to a less lethal strain would be unlikely to change human responses to an outbreak in a way which benefited the virus' ability to spread.
- buboard 6y agoi assume we re looking for asymptomatic people, they won't have quarantined themselves
- postingawayonhn 6y agoIs there a significant difference between being dead and being isolated?
- danieltillett 6y agoFrom the short term perspective of the virus no, but long term...
- buboard 6y agodoes that mean that cured people will start re-infecting people?