3 ms·

Thanks for sharing the link about SIR :) So far I was thinking about changing the model for a given country if the Gaussian approach would cause unacceptable in

• gus_massa 6y ago
  The Gaussian is good enough for a graphic, but I'm not sure how much systematic error adds when it is used to fit the data. I don't have a good intuition or theoretical knowledge about that. I use the phrase "Everything is a Gaussian" all the time in the sense of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem but I'm not sure if it produce a good fit when you have only the left tail. The problem with Argentina is that we had the usual exponential grow, and then we started a quarantine so the grow changed to a slower exponential. The automatic fit confuses the change in the shape with the region near the top of the Gaussian, so it produces a bad result. Sometimes it is tricky to fit a function [1] Looking at the data, they look weird. I expected something like this image: https://imgur.com/a/eO8VyQ3 https://imgur.com/a/eO8VyQ3 But it doesn't look like the data at all. In particular I don't remember the big peaks and the zeros that are in the data, but perhaps I was not paying attention. Best wishes for you too. [1] Have you ever fit a oscillating function? It is a mess. I only got good results if I pick the initial point by hand.