2 ms·
The current IHME best estimates are well within the uncertainty regions of the earlier predictions. Especially given all the modeling challenges, you cannot s
by gammarator 7y ago
The current IHME best estimates are well within the uncertainty regions of the earlier predictions.
Especially given all the modeling challenges, you cannot simply take the peak of the posterior as "the truth."
- m0zg 7y agoNo they aren't. 100K was the _lower_ bound of those predictions at one point. Now it's 31K. For models to be useful they have to have at least some sort of predictive power. IHME models are total bullshit that, if the feds 100% believed in it, would have caused a complete disaster due to NY hoarding massive quantities of equipment and supplies they did not need. Federal field hospital in IHME's home state, WA, was taken down the other day. It did not see a _single_ patient. The Javits temporary hospital in NY is also almost empty. NY hospitalizations are way down. ICU admissions are down even more steeply. We won't even get the 60K deaths the models are currently predicting. Not even close.