If untreated, the fatality rate goes up. I imagine OPs figure is assuming widespread contagion and the average 20% hospitalization needed, which would translate

If untreated, the fatality rate goes up. I imagine OPs figure is assuming widespread contagion and the average 20% hospitalization needed, which would translate to A LOT more dead people. We won’t know the actual death rate after the fact, of course, or how it compares in places where health care is saturated vs not. But that figure isn’t/wasn’t entirely impossible?