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The reason why Trump went from "its a democratic hoax" to "100k-200k dead" was literally the Overton Window. Pick the biggest, most unlikely number, get everyon

The reason why Trump went from "its a democratic hoax" to "100k-200k dead" was literally the Overton Window. Pick the biggest, most unlikely number, get everyone used to that, and deploy the puffery when it doesn't happen. Markets are responding to that. It was a pretty good move because that argument co-opted the opposition who was claiming a million or more would die. That was BS, and the administration's position calls them on it and puts them in a position of declaring a win because the unreasonable number is... unreasonable. But as for the market? This is all a game. EDIT: My post will probably age-like-milk when we're still in lockdown in November with 300k dead and we all have long hair and are wiping our butts with the lawn like sick dogs.

Retric 6y ago
What’s so strange to me is how much trust is being placed in these test results. Across the country doctors are telling people they can’t test people so stay home in self quarantine until you have difficulty breathing. Consider, 1/2 of all tests in New Jersey have been positive, nationwide it’s 1/4th for a disease that shares many symptoms with the flu. While the official infection rate might have more or less stabilized it’s not going down and it’s vastly low. So, what’s making them think 100-200k is a high enough to call it a safe benchmark? By official numbers NYC infection rate is already 1%, for that to be low and infection rates steady it’s going do easily hit double digits very quickly.
- TechBro8615 6y ago
  I don’t understand the obsession with testing. Ok, if we are doing random samples or antibody tests, then I agree it’s important so we can understand the true prevalence and mortality rate. But that’s not what we are doing right now. Otherwise, it just seems like a political exercise to boost the numbers and cause panic. If you’re symptomatic, is the best course of action really to leave your house for a test? It seems like it would be better to call the hospital and let them know your condition (so they can estimate upcoming hospitalizations). Then, stay at home and only go to the hospital when your symptoms worsen. Get tested when you go to the hospital.
  - Retric 6y ago
    Many people are infectious without symptoms, others have yet to show significant symptoms. So to actually stop the spread you need to discover these people and quarantine them. South Korea very effectively used this policy and they turned a significant outbreak to near total containment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S... Going from a peak of 1,062 cases per day to 27 yesterday is huge.
    - sillyconvalley 6y ago
      Or, if you just quarantine everybody (hence the advice to stay the hell home and assume you have it), then the curve flattens. You don't need a test to stay home.
throwaway122378 6y ago
Those estimates weren’t created or solely vocalized by the administration

Retric 6y ago

What’s so strange to me is how much trust is being placed in these test results. Across the country doctors are telling people they can’t test people so stay home in self quarantine until you have difficulty breathing. Consider, 1/2 of all tests in New Jersey have been positive, nationwide it’s 1/4th for a disease that shares many symptoms with the flu. While the official infection rate might have more or less stabilized it’s not going down and it’s vastly low. So, what’s making them think 100-200k is a high enough to call it a safe benchmark? By official numbers NYC infection rate is already 1%, for that to be low and infection rates steady it’s going do easily hit double digits very quickly.

TechBro8615 6y ago
I don’t understand the obsession with testing. Ok, if we are doing random samples or antibody tests, then I agree it’s important so we can understand the true prevalence and mortality rate. But that’s not what we are doing right now. Otherwise, it just seems like a political exercise to boost the numbers and cause panic. If you’re symptomatic, is the best course of action really to leave your house for a test? It seems like it would be better to call the hospital and let them know your condition (so they can estimate upcoming hospitalizations). Then, stay at home and only go to the hospital when your symptoms worsen. Get tested when you go to the hospital.
- Retric 6y ago
  Many people are infectious without symptoms, others have yet to show significant symptoms. So to actually stop the spread you need to discover these people and quarantine them. South Korea very effectively used this policy and they turned a significant outbreak to near total containment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S... Going from a peak of 1,062 cases per day to 27 yesterday is huge.
  - sillyconvalley 6y ago
    Or, if you just quarantine everybody (hence the advice to stay the hell home and assume you have it), then the curve flattens. You don't need a test to stay home.

throwaway122378 6y ago

Those estimates weren’t created or solely vocalized by the administration