7 ms·

The increase in the last two weeks is because it's becoming obvious that: 1) The US's response to this was competent. 2) The measures put in place are working

by blhack 6y ago

The increase in the last two weeks is because it's becoming obvious that: 1) The US's response to this was competent. 2) The measures put in place are working. 3) The projections are improving substantially. 4) The time horizon is shrinking. 5) We are starting to understand how to treat this. (+ "in the us"). Two weeks ago we were looking at places like Italy, and extrapolating that the US could see deaths in the millions. A week ago that projection went down to 100-200k, and yesterday it went down to 60k. Obviously that is still a massive catastrophe, but it's nowhere near the catastrophe we were fearing two weeks ago. Additionally, the writing is on the wall that manufacturing is going to be moving away from China as much as possible in the near future. Much of that, for American companies at least, is going to come back to the US, probably at the hands of massive tariffs. That's all good news for the US economy. >US realizes the coronavirus is hitting them the hardest. Where did you hear this? It is absolutely not true.

andbberger 6y ago
The US's response could not be described as anything even approaching competent. This is still just getting started. Let's check back in a few months and see how this comment has aged...
- blhack 6y ago
  What should the US have done that other countries are doing? We closed travel early, we started closing businesses early, and we hold daily press conferences with multiple medical and financial experts that are directly informing the entire population of what measures they should be taking. edit: it seems like the general response to "what should we have done" is "the federal government should have shut down travel/businesses nationwide". Is that even legal for the federal government to do? I know that when Trump floated the idea of travel restrictions for NY, Cuomo called it an act of war (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/politics/cuomo-ny-quarantine-cnntv/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/politics/cuomo-ny-quarantine-...).
  - vvanders 6y ago
    Not suspending federal support for testing would go a long way.
  - _delirium 6y ago
    We still haven't really closed travel: even the source of the biggest current outbreak, NYC, still has airports operating! And not only for medical flights... you can just buy yourself a plane ticket from NYC to Miami if you want to visit. The first significant US outbreak was in Washington state in February, and there were no real travel-restriction measures to/from the Seattle area back then either, which is part of how it spread across the country. It probably wouldn't be possible to do a China-style quarantine of an entire region, like the way they completely locked down travel to/from Hubei, but we didn't do anything even 25% of the way there... SeaTac kept operating for weeks as if there was no issue, with large volumes of passengers exiting the source of the then-biggest outbreak. We were also quite late on shutting down businesses, although some places later than others. Fairly high-ranking officials (the Oklahoma governor, the NYC mayor, etc.) were openly encouraging people to go out to big events as late as mid-March, weeks after there was evidence of community spread.
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      > We were also quite late on shutting down businesses Hell, there are still eight states that haven't, per the map at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay....
  - cycrutchfield 6y ago
    How about waiting for 4-6 weeks while the CDC shipped a buggy test before we started actually ramping up testing. We could have had a trajectory like South Korea.
  - three_seagrass 6y ago
    The federal government should have enacted stay at home measures. By leaving it up to the states, it's been bungled and the covid outbreak is lasting longer and killing more people. This leads to stay at home needing extensions and a further drain on the economy.
- tootie 6y ago
  Trump has been true to form in his lying and aggrandizing at every point, but I think the public has just gotten used to it. The CDC and state governors have been mixed, but the hardest hit states (WA, NY, CA) have been pretty aggressive.
- TechBro8615 6y ago
  This is an emotionally charged political comment. If you only watch CNN and read the NYT, you might think this. But if you look at the curve, and per-capita death numbers, the US seems to be doing a good job managing the crisis relative to its size. Has anyone in the US died because they didn’t have a ventilator? Not that I’m aware of. Washington State is already on the downslope. The history books will be very kind to Trump for his response, much to the chagrin of an inexplicably biased literati class rooting against him.
  - andbberger 6y ago
    Yes indeed yours is an emotionally charged political comment, thanks for prefacing it with the warning. NY has started splitting ventilators.
    - TechBro8615 6y ago
      The implication of your assertions is that the market is irrational right now. You could make a lot of money buying some puts in July. (And I hoped you’d appreciate the ambiguity in the opening sentence :-) Ultimately we’re all in this together and we all want what’s best for the country and world.)
  - Retric 6y ago
    If the US had does as well as South Korea it would have 1,300 deaths and ~200 new infections per day. Instead we have 10x as many deaths per capita and at least 150x as many new infections per capita today. 50m people, 208 deaths, 27 new infections yesterday. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S... 330m people, 14,696 deaths (cdc), 32,039 new infections yesterday: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_t... They are a poorer country with a higher population density, yet somehow we failed.
0xff00ffee 6y ago
The reason why Trump went from "its a democratic hoax" to "100k-200k dead" was literally the Overton Window. Pick the biggest, most unlikely number, get everyone used to that, and deploy the puffery when it doesn't happen. Markets are responding to that. It was a pretty good move because that argument co-opted the opposition who was claiming a million or more would die. That was BS, and the administration's position calls them on it and puts them in a position of declaring a win because the unreasonable number is... unreasonable. But as for the market? This is all a game. EDIT: My post will probably age-like-milk when we're still in lockdown in November with 300k dead and we all have long hair and are wiping our butts with the lawn like sick dogs.
- Retric 6y ago
  What’s so strange to me is how much trust is being placed in these test results. Across the country doctors are telling people they can’t test people so stay home in self quarantine until you have difficulty breathing. Consider, 1/2 of all tests in New Jersey have been positive, nationwide it’s 1/4th for a disease that shares many symptoms with the flu. While the official infection rate might have more or less stabilized it’s not going down and it’s vastly low. So, what’s making them think 100-200k is a high enough to call it a safe benchmark? By official numbers NYC infection rate is already 1%, for that to be low and infection rates steady it’s going do easily hit double digits very quickly.
  - TechBro8615 6y ago
    I don’t understand the obsession with testing. Ok, if we are doing random samples or antibody tests, then I agree it’s important so we can understand the true prevalence and mortality rate. But that’s not what we are doing right now. Otherwise, it just seems like a political exercise to boost the numbers and cause panic. If you’re symptomatic, is the best course of action really to leave your house for a test? It seems like it would be better to call the hospital and let them know your condition (so they can estimate upcoming hospitalizations). Then, stay at home and only go to the hospital when your symptoms worsen. Get tested when you go to the hospital.
three_seagrass 6y ago
Yes, if you only just assume that markets are perfect and information is symmetrical.
kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
Manufacturing will be moving to places like Vietnam and Malaysia. Nothing significant is going to be domesticated. The vaunted Foxconn factory in Wisconsin is still vapor. China would have already had it done and running.
jameslevy 6y ago
Back in February, there were a handful of cases popping up here and there. And then growing in each hotspot from 5 to 10 to 20, etc. It didn't take long for things to get out of control. Without some major game-changer in the next two months, its hard to see a reason why the same thing won't just happen again. Hopefully over the summer it's not as contagious due to hot weather.
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  The first game changer is widely-available testing, and contact tracing. The second game changer is a vaccine. We should have the first in a month or two. The second... who knows?

by blhack 6y ago

andbberger 6y ago

The US's response could not be described as anything even approaching competent. This is still just getting started. Let's check back in a few months and see how this comment has aged...

blhack 6y ago
What should the US have done that other countries are doing? We closed travel early, we started closing businesses early, and we hold daily press conferences with multiple medical and financial experts that are directly informing the entire population of what measures they should be taking. edit: it seems like the general response to "what should we have done" is "the federal government should have shut down travel/businesses nationwide". Is that even legal for the federal government to do? I know that when Trump floated the idea of travel restrictions for NY, Cuomo called it an act of war (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/politics/cuomo-ny-quarantine-cnntv/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/politics/cuomo-ny-quarantine-...).
- vvanders 6y ago
  Not suspending federal support for testing would go a long way.
- _delirium 6y ago
  We still haven't really closed travel: even the source of the biggest current outbreak, NYC, still has airports operating! And not only for medical flights... you can just buy yourself a plane ticket from NYC to Miami if you want to visit. The first significant US outbreak was in Washington state in February, and there were no real travel-restriction measures to/from the Seattle area back then either, which is part of how it spread across the country. It probably wouldn't be possible to do a China-style quarantine of an entire region, like the way they completely locked down travel to/from Hubei, but we didn't do anything even 25% of the way there... SeaTac kept operating for weeks as if there was no issue, with large volumes of passengers exiting the source of the then-biggest outbreak. We were also quite late on shutting down businesses, although some places later than others. Fairly high-ranking officials (the Oklahoma governor, the NYC mayor, etc.) were openly encouraging people to go out to big events as late as mid-March, weeks after there was evidence of community spread.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    > We were also quite late on shutting down businesses Hell, there are still eight states that haven't, per the map at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay....
- cycrutchfield 6y ago
  How about waiting for 4-6 weeks while the CDC shipped a buggy test before we started actually ramping up testing. We could have had a trajectory like South Korea.
- three_seagrass 6y ago
  The federal government should have enacted stay at home measures. By leaving it up to the states, it's been bungled and the covid outbreak is lasting longer and killing more people. This leads to stay at home needing extensions and a further drain on the economy.
tootie 6y ago
Trump has been true to form in his lying and aggrandizing at every point, but I think the public has just gotten used to it. The CDC and state governors have been mixed, but the hardest hit states (WA, NY, CA) have been pretty aggressive.
TechBro8615 6y ago
This is an emotionally charged political comment. If you only watch CNN and read the NYT, you might think this. But if you look at the curve, and per-capita death numbers, the US seems to be doing a good job managing the crisis relative to its size. Has anyone in the US died because they didn’t have a ventilator? Not that I’m aware of. Washington State is already on the downslope. The history books will be very kind to Trump for his response, much to the chagrin of an inexplicably biased literati class rooting against him.
- andbberger 6y ago
  Yes indeed yours is an emotionally charged political comment, thanks for prefacing it with the warning. NY has started splitting ventilators.
  - TechBro8615 6y ago
    The implication of your assertions is that the market is irrational right now. You could make a lot of money buying some puts in July. (And I hoped you’d appreciate the ambiguity in the opening sentence :-) Ultimately we’re all in this together and we all want what’s best for the country and world.)
- Retric 6y ago
  If the US had does as well as South Korea it would have 1,300 deaths and ~200 new infections per day. Instead we have 10x as many deaths per capita and at least 150x as many new infections per capita today. 50m people, 208 deaths, 27 new infections yesterday. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S... 330m people, 14,696 deaths (cdc), 32,039 new infections yesterday: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_t... They are a poorer country with a higher population density, yet somehow we failed.

0xff00ffee 6y ago

The reason why Trump went from "its a democratic hoax" to "100k-200k dead" was literally the Overton Window. Pick the biggest, most unlikely number, get everyone used to that, and deploy the puffery when it doesn't happen. Markets are responding to that. It was a pretty good move because that argument co-opted the opposition who was claiming a million or more would die. That was BS, and the administration's position calls them on it and puts them in a position of declaring a win because the unreasonable number is... unreasonable. But as for the market? This is all a game. EDIT: My post will probably age-like-milk when we're still in lockdown in November with 300k dead and we all have long hair and are wiping our butts with the lawn like sick dogs.

Retric 6y ago
What’s so strange to me is how much trust is being placed in these test results. Across the country doctors are telling people they can’t test people so stay home in self quarantine until you have difficulty breathing. Consider, 1/2 of all tests in New Jersey have been positive, nationwide it’s 1/4th for a disease that shares many symptoms with the flu. While the official infection rate might have more or less stabilized it’s not going down and it’s vastly low. So, what’s making them think 100-200k is a high enough to call it a safe benchmark? By official numbers NYC infection rate is already 1%, for that to be low and infection rates steady it’s going do easily hit double digits very quickly.
- TechBro8615 6y ago
  I don’t understand the obsession with testing. Ok, if we are doing random samples or antibody tests, then I agree it’s important so we can understand the true prevalence and mortality rate. But that’s not what we are doing right now. Otherwise, it just seems like a political exercise to boost the numbers and cause panic. If you’re symptomatic, is the best course of action really to leave your house for a test? It seems like it would be better to call the hospital and let them know your condition (so they can estimate upcoming hospitalizations). Then, stay at home and only go to the hospital when your symptoms worsen. Get tested when you go to the hospital.

three_seagrass 6y ago

Yes, if you only just assume that markets are perfect and information is symmetrical.

kevin_thibedeau 6y ago

Manufacturing will be moving to places like Vietnam and Malaysia. Nothing significant is going to be domesticated. The vaunted Foxconn factory in Wisconsin is still vapor. China would have already had it done and running.

jameslevy 6y ago

Back in February, there were a handful of cases popping up here and there. And then growing in each hotspot from 5 to 10 to 20, etc. It didn't take long for things to get out of control. Without some major game-changer in the next two months, its hard to see a reason why the same thing won't just happen again. Hopefully over the summer it's not as contagious due to hot weather.

AnimalMuppet 6y ago
The first game changer is widely-available testing, and contact tracing. The second game changer is a vaccine. We should have the first in a month or two. The second... who knows?