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And how's that working out for Sweden? 20x death rate to date compared to neighboring Finland which has a lockdown in place, and an ever accelerating rate of in

And how's that working out for Sweden? 20x death rate to date compared to neighboring Finland which has a lockdown in place, and an ever accelerating rate of infected. Cool, cool. Also China today is nothing like China pre-covid. Mandatory mask wearing everywhere, temperature checks every few blocks, in every shop, mobile codes to scan certifying your virus free status before being allowed to buy anything. They're not exactly planning their next Disneyland trips over there.

arcticbull 6y ago
> And how's that working out for Sweden? 20x death rate to date compared to neighboring Finland which has a lockdown in place, and an ever accelerating rate of infected. Cool, cool. Think about it: if you allow it to spread, then yes, you will see people die. The same is true of the flu, which has so far killed more people in the same period of time than COVID has according to the CDC -- in every age category [5]. I bet flu deaths are plummeting in Finland, too. I bet you anything that Sweden has 20X the death rate from the flu as compared to Finland and Denmark. Because nothing spreads when you're locked in. But it would be absurd to lock everyone inside because of the flu right? It's a question of risk management not risk elimination. [1] And they're quite right, that they will be safe from a second wave as no other country will. So, to answer you question, it's working out well. > Also China today is nothing like China pre-covid. Mandatory mask wearing everywhere, temperature checks every few blocks, in every shop, mobile codes to scan certifying your virus free status before being allowed to buy anything. They're not exactly planning their next Disneyland trips over there. 1. They wore masks anyways due to the pollution ([2] this photo is from 2013 not 2020). 2. They had police/army stops anyways due to the PRC government being totalitarian. [3] 3. They have actually re-opened Shanghai Disneyland, as of March 9th. [4] Sounds pretty similar to me. [1] https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2013/08/our_decreasing_toler.html https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2013/08/our_decreas... [2] https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/photo/2013-01/25/content_16174310_8.htm https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/photo/2013-01/25/content_16174... [3] https://www.wsj.com/articles/twelve-days-in-xinjiang-how-chinas-surveillance-state-overwhelms-daily-life-1513700355 https://www.wsj.com/articles/twelve-days-in-xinjiang-how-chi... [4] https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/destinations/2020/03/09/coronavirus-shanghai-disney-resort-partially-reopens/4998586002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/destinations/2020/03/0... [5] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
- ypzhang2 6y ago
  I don't have a good sense on the other points but I would point out the points about China are not quite right. 1. This is untrue. Masks were worn intermittently only on "bad pollution" days in cities like Beijing and Shanghai. Inland cities like Chengdu there is not widespread mask usage. 2. There is a difference between Xinjiang and the rest of China. You definitively do not see this type of security checkpoints in "regular" pre-covid China. China is not back to "normal", there is fits and starts in the restarts to life, and there is also a psychological drag on consumer demand even though some shopping is reopened.
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    1. I think it's fair to say every day is a bad pollution day in Beijing haha. I've seen the PM counts. With that in mind, of course, I've no reason to doubt you. 2. Sure, it varies. I didn't mean to imply it was back to 100%, just that it was pointed in the right direction again.
IAmGraydon 6y ago
Sweden's deaths per 10M population is currently sitting at 778. That's lower than than the UK (1,202), France (1,825), Italy (3,024), Spain (3,306) and Switzerland (1,113), just to name a handful. Finland has not even administered enough tests to know what's what. Your comments about China are more hyperbole. What I've found most interesting during this entire event is how many people desperately want to convince themselves and others that we're facing certain doom. It's really quite bizarre.
- arcticbull 6y ago
  Schneier's essay follow-up on a post-9/11 world really crystalized my thinking on what's happening here [1]. I think this quote was particularly poignant: "We're bad at accurately assessing risk; we tend to exaggerate spectacular, strange, and rare events, and downplay ordinary, familiar, and common ones. This leads us to believe that violence against police, school shootings, and terrorist attacks are more common and more deadly than they actually are—and that the costs, dangers, and risks of a militarized police, a school system without flexibility, and a surveillance state without privacy are less than they really are." Or in this case, that COVID is much more fatal, devastating and terrifying than it really is, while the flu is much more tame and approachable -- and that we should spare literally no expense in the world to prevent it. Even though of course the flu kills 650,000 people each and every year, year after year. We're just used to it so we pay it no mind. What we're seeing is less a pandemic (although of course it is one) and more a bug in human psychology on a massive never-before-seen scale. [1] https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2013/08/our_decreasing_toler.html https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2013/08/our_decreas...
  - IAmGraydon 6y ago
    I think Schneier is speaking about our memories of events in retrospect, however. Spectacular, strange and rare events are more punctuated in our memories, and therefore take up more of our mind share when reflecting on the past. What's going on now, in the moment, seems to be something different. I keep hearing people taking minor news stories and blowing them up into apocalyptic scenarios like they WANT them to be true. As an example, there was a story a few days ago about how some tigers at the Bronx Zoo were infected. The next day, I overheard some people talking about how Covid19 is now infecting pets and there are animals spreading it in the streets of NY. Nearly every day I'm hearing things like this. Go look at the trending movies on Netflix - every one of them has to do with pandemics or the world ending. People want to fantasize about these realities. Why is that? It has to be some kind of coping mechanism. Is this an expression of society's deep discontent with the way things are and a desire to see it all come down? Whatever it is, for some reason, imagining the worst case scenario decreases pain/increases pleasure for a lot of people. It's fascinating. Here's a great article on the subject: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/psychology-reveals-the-comforts-of-the-apocalypse/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/psychology...

arcticbull 6y ago

> And how's that working out for Sweden? 20x death rate to date compared to neighboring Finland which has a lockdown in place, and an ever accelerating rate of infected. Cool, cool. Think about it: if you allow it to spread, then yes, you will see people die. The same is true of the flu, which has so far killed more people in the same period of time than COVID has according to the CDC -- in every age category [5]. I bet flu deaths are plummeting in Finland, too. I bet you anything that Sweden has 20X the death rate from the flu as compared to Finland and Denmark. Because nothing spreads when you're locked in. But it would be absurd to lock everyone inside because of the flu right? It's a question of risk management not risk elimination. [1] And they're quite right, that they will be safe from a second wave as no other country will. So, to answer you question, it's working out well. > Also China today is nothing like China pre-covid. Mandatory mask wearing everywhere, temperature checks every few blocks, in every shop, mobile codes to scan certifying your virus free status before being allowed to buy anything. They're not exactly planning their next Disneyland trips over there. 1. They wore masks anyways due to the pollution ([2] this photo is from 2013 not 2020). 2. They had police/army stops anyways due to the PRC government being totalitarian. [3] 3. They have actually re-opened Shanghai Disneyland, as of March 9th. [4] Sounds pretty similar to me. [1] https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2013/08/our_decreasing_toler.html https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2013/08/our_decreas... [2] https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/photo/2013-01/25/content_16174310_8.htm https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/photo/2013-01/25/content_16174... [3] https://www.wsj.com/articles/twelve-days-in-xinjiang-how-chinas-surveillance-state-overwhelms-daily-life-1513700355 https://www.wsj.com/articles/twelve-days-in-xinjiang-how-chi... [4] https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/destinations/2020/03/09/coronavirus-shanghai-disney-resort-partially-reopens/4998586002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/destinations/2020/03/0... [5] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

ypzhang2 6y ago
I don't have a good sense on the other points but I would point out the points about China are not quite right. 1. This is untrue. Masks were worn intermittently only on "bad pollution" days in cities like Beijing and Shanghai. Inland cities like Chengdu there is not widespread mask usage. 2. There is a difference between Xinjiang and the rest of China. You definitively do not see this type of security checkpoints in "regular" pre-covid China. China is not back to "normal", there is fits and starts in the restarts to life, and there is also a psychological drag on consumer demand even though some shopping is reopened.
- arcticbull 6y ago
  1. I think it's fair to say every day is a bad pollution day in Beijing haha. I've seen the PM counts. With that in mind, of course, I've no reason to doubt you. 2. Sure, it varies. I didn't mean to imply it was back to 100%, just that it was pointed in the right direction again.

IAmGraydon 6y ago

Sweden's deaths per 10M population is currently sitting at 778. That's lower than than the UK (1,202), France (1,825), Italy (3,024), Spain (3,306) and Switzerland (1,113), just to name a handful. Finland has not even administered enough tests to know what's what. Your comments about China are more hyperbole. What I've found most interesting during this entire event is how many people desperately want to convince themselves and others that we're facing certain doom. It's really quite bizarre.

arcticbull 6y ago
Schneier's essay follow-up on a post-9/11 world really crystalized my thinking on what's happening here [1]. I think this quote was particularly poignant: "We're bad at accurately assessing risk; we tend to exaggerate spectacular, strange, and rare events, and downplay ordinary, familiar, and common ones. This leads us to believe that violence against police, school shootings, and terrorist attacks are more common and more deadly than they actually are—and that the costs, dangers, and risks of a militarized police, a school system without flexibility, and a surveillance state without privacy are less than they really are." Or in this case, that COVID is much more fatal, devastating and terrifying than it really is, while the flu is much more tame and approachable -- and that we should spare literally no expense in the world to prevent it. Even though of course the flu kills 650,000 people each and every year, year after year. We're just used to it so we pay it no mind. What we're seeing is less a pandemic (although of course it is one) and more a bug in human psychology on a massive never-before-seen scale. [1] https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2013/08/our_decreasing_toler.html https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2013/08/our_decreas...
- IAmGraydon 6y ago
  I think Schneier is speaking about our memories of events in retrospect, however. Spectacular, strange and rare events are more punctuated in our memories, and therefore take up more of our mind share when reflecting on the past. What's going on now, in the moment, seems to be something different. I keep hearing people taking minor news stories and blowing them up into apocalyptic scenarios like they WANT them to be true. As an example, there was a story a few days ago about how some tigers at the Bronx Zoo were infected. The next day, I overheard some people talking about how Covid19 is now infecting pets and there are animals spreading it in the streets of NY. Nearly every day I'm hearing things like this. Go look at the trending movies on Netflix - every one of them has to do with pandemics or the world ending. People want to fantasize about these realities. Why is that? It has to be some kind of coping mechanism. Is this an expression of society's deep discontent with the way things are and a desire to see it all come down? Whatever it is, for some reason, imagining the worst case scenario decreases pain/increases pleasure for a lot of people. It's fascinating. Here's a great article on the subject: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/psychology-reveals-the-comforts-of-the-apocalypse/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/psychology...