3 ms·
Remember, this virus has circulated weeks before the confinement, so don't you think a doubling R0 have completely changed the number of cases that have been mo
by w3mmpp 7y ago
Remember, this virus has circulated weeks before the confinement, so don't you think a doubling R0 have completely changed the number of cases that have been modeled so far, and therefore the CFR?
Of course we have much to learn and this new R0 number is part of that learning process, but imo, we can't think like 2 days ago when we thought the R0 was between 2 and 3.
- analog31 7y agoStill, the total reported cases in the US is 460k, so if there are 100 unreported cases for every reported case, that's 46 million, or 1 in 5 people. But I'm open to new evidence. At the very least, we'll know in a week if this still makes sense. ;-)
- w3mmpp 7y agoI'm just reading about that city in Germany, Gangelt, where they did those blood tests to 1000 people, they found out that 2% are actively infected, and 14% have the antibodies (indicating a prior infection): https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tes... So we're talking 1 in 7 for that particular city.