It's novelty. Basically all models are based on assumptions in closed system. As one gets more information they add it to the closed system eventually making it

It's novelty. Basically all models are based on assumptions in closed system. As one gets more information they add it to the closed system eventually making it easier to predict. As we know reality is extremely heterogeneous and an open system with too many interactions. This in principle makes all practically wrong. But it does not mean that they are not useful. (At least they are useful to make scary graphs that convince presidents). I had a lame model that is currently predicting lower death rate but in a similar trend [1]. In this model my assumption is the lockdown to continue for 45 days. The result which I regret to have seen shows a scary number of 600k deaths after 39 days. So I'm hoping for something spectacular to happen such as vaccine, a drug, the sun etc that I would use to change my prediction. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22814927 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22814927