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I don't see how you can say the numbers don't work out, unless you believe hospital systems are lying when they say they run out of beds/equipment.
by tunesmith 7y ago
I don't see how you can say the numbers don't work out, unless you believe hospital systems are lying when they say they run out of beds/equipment.
- aaron695 7y agoTry to work out the actual numbers for strict lockdown vs not strict and model it over two years being practical. No hand waving. Include the second and third waves for instance. You won't see the difference you think. Vaccines may never happen ( but post a second winter is a best case ) and treatments don't make things much better. Once you get 1000000 dead vs 1050000 two years later we can talk about the additional dead from being unable to do things like cancer surgery.
- tunesmith 7y agoOr asthma attacks, or infections from broken arms, or "minor" heart attacks, or anything else that people can fully recover from but still need immediate assistance with at risk of death. You're going to have to show more of your work if you're convinced there's negligible difference. We know that even now some hospital systems are overwhelmed, at a point when the worldwide population has room for another 10-13 doublings. We also know that mitigation has already proven to bring effective R0 down to close to 1.