8 ms·
The point of the parent is you can't actually find R_0 because R_0 depends on the behaviors of millions of people which cumulatively are based on billions of fa
by thereisnospork 7y ago
The point of the parent is you can't actually find R_0 because R_0 depends on the behaviors of millions of people which cumulatively are based on billions of factors. R_0 isn't a constant, it's an equation. Mathematically, unless you get really lucky or have a very idealized system, the standard models underfit the actual system.
The models can still be useful though, e.g. 'we must reduce r0 below r_critical to eliminate spontaneous spreading given herd immunity %'s' is worth knowing.
- jvanderbot 7y agoThis is not as absolute as is being presented. We can speak about spreads and aggregate behavioral patterns just fine if we take times to infinity and zoom out far enough. The next few weeks or localized transmisson (which is "impossible" to model) are problematic, agreed.
- jacobr1 7y agoActuaries do a pretty good job predicting things at a population level, where many factors average.