In the 9 days since we still have models that are all over the place. Nate Silver covers the difficulty in predictive modeling of pandemics in his book "The Sig

In the 9 days since we still have models that are all over the place. Nate Silver covers the difficulty in predictive modeling of pandemics in his book "The Signal and the Noise" and in the years since it was written not much has changes to they're basically rehashing the points he made then.