4 ms·
Good luck trying to predict how much of a population is going to refuse to isolate and interact anyway. Also relies on governments and politicians to not fudge
by ck2 7y ago
Good luck trying to predict how much of a population is going to refuse to isolate and interact anyway.
Also relies on governments and politicians to not fudge testing and death counts, which is never going to be accurate.
btw the financial times has maybe the best graph on the stats however flawed:
http://com.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com/225197b0-79d4-11ea-af44-daa3def9ae03 http://com.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com/2251...
- watwut 7y agoThe actual model used by UK imperial college estimated compliance with karantene of sick people 75% and compliance with general stay-at-home 50%. What I find frustrating is that actual models used by epidemiologists back in february and March incorporated pretty much all "gotchas" non-epidemiologists discovered today. And it does not matter, because non-epidemiologists still assume they are first ones to ever discover them.