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What about our models for global warming?
by 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 7y ago
What about our models for global warming?
- chrisco255 7y agoCorrect. Non-linear dynamic multivariate systems are very difficult to model and uncertainty is a function of time. That's why we can't predict the weather more than a few days out with any degree of accuracy.
- xienze 7y agoWell those are obviously perfect. /s
- ben_w 7y agoThose two things are unrelated. Unlike a virus, the laws of physics don’t appear to mutate. Also, you can’t measure the quality of your model of virus progression with earth observation satellites or hundreds of thousands of years worth of ice core data. Also, rather unfortunately in this case, the lack of meaningful action by world governments means that none of the climate models have to account for feedback caused by the world actually acting on the results of those the models.
- guscost 7y agoIt’s going to be fun to watch this flood of nonsense convince precisely nobody for the next few years.
- Symmetry 7y agoCompared to a spherical cow model we could make as soon as we realized that CO2 the oceans absorbed didn't stay absorbed we've only done a little better. It's a complicated system, we don't know all the detail, and the calibration of the older models we've been able to robustly test at least just wasn't there. Compared to constant model where the temperature stays the same both the modern sophisticated model and the spherical cow model do much, much better. For simple things like "how much infrared light and in what bands does CO2 absorb" we can measure that in a laboratory and have it nailed down.
- jeromegv 7y agoThe thing with climate is that you don't need to believe in the forecast. You could just look at the PAST results. Let's say just the last 10 years. And compare that to the last 200 years. May be that will teach you that something is going wrong and not going in the right direction.
- 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 7y agoThe problem with that is how far back so you look for things to be “normal”? After all, most of North America was covered with ice at some point.
- mcguire 7y agoMost of North America was also covered by ocean at some points. Neither of which is spectacularly good for the North American economy.