3 ms·

Why / how will the virus peak soon? Global population is ~7.8 billion and yet presumably only 10-100s of millions have caught it so far.

ceejayoz 7y ago
At the rough 33% increase rate the virus is showing, 10 million is 20 in three days. 40 in 6. 80 in 9. 160 in 12. Social distancing is slowing that down a bit, but I suspect in the coming week or two we'll learn it's been spreading like wildfire in places like Florida and Alabama where they've been slow to clamp down on social activity. Exponential growth can be hard to wrap heads around. That said, I think "peak" is a misnomer. We'll have a bunch of peaks.
- _curious_ 7y ago
  Definitely cyclical...and so will the economy which will make any economic recovery more drawn out and difficult as we experience more ups and downs in day to day life. Plus now we'll have a bunch of companies on the dole who otherwise wouldn't be in business/re-open and it will become even more surreal when the market can't sort out which companies are existing naturally and which ones are fully propped up (esp. if there is no oversight = impossible to track).
- mywittyname 7y ago
  Also, we're not even testing for it broadly enough to really know how many cases we have. Current numbers in the USA are a rough educated guess.
daxfohl 7y ago
I am afraid the big hit will come in the second wave, when we get used to the numbers, get cabin fever, things start opening up and say 0.1% of people still have it, versus the one in a million that had it when things started shutting down. When the contagion is out in 0.1%, and we reopen everything, suddenly 50% of people will have it in a month and that will be unlike anything we've seen yet.
- _curious_ 7y ago
  "I am afraid the big hit will come in the second wave" Quite possible, yes, but do not live in fear, friend. This is a great time to eradicate fear and embrace the chaos :)
  - Balgair 7y ago
    Now we're asking the real questions! But what facet of Chaos are we to embrace? The undivided power of it? Or to pray to one of the gods and seek their favor? Grandfather Nurgle may be good now, but in 6 months the skull throne may need skulls. Slaneesh seems to have been usurped recently.
    - daxfohl 7y ago
      Was this intended as a response to something else?
      - Balgair 7y ago
        https://warhammerfantasy.fandom.com/wiki/Chaos https://warhammerfantasy.fandom.com/wiki/Chaos

ceejayoz 7y ago

At the rough 33% increase rate the virus is showing, 10 million is 20 in three days. 40 in 6. 80 in 9. 160 in 12. Social distancing is slowing that down a bit, but I suspect in the coming week or two we'll learn it's been spreading like wildfire in places like Florida and Alabama where they've been slow to clamp down on social activity. Exponential growth can be hard to wrap heads around. That said, I think "peak" is a misnomer. We'll have a bunch of peaks.

_curious_ 7y ago
Definitely cyclical...and so will the economy which will make any economic recovery more drawn out and difficult as we experience more ups and downs in day to day life. Plus now we'll have a bunch of companies on the dole who otherwise wouldn't be in business/re-open and it will become even more surreal when the market can't sort out which companies are existing naturally and which ones are fully propped up (esp. if there is no oversight = impossible to track).
mywittyname 7y ago
Also, we're not even testing for it broadly enough to really know how many cases we have. Current numbers in the USA are a rough educated guess.

daxfohl 7y ago

I am afraid the big hit will come in the second wave, when we get used to the numbers, get cabin fever, things start opening up and say 0.1% of people still have it, versus the one in a million that had it when things started shutting down. When the contagion is out in 0.1%, and we reopen everything, suddenly 50% of people will have it in a month and that will be unlike anything we've seen yet.

_curious_ 7y ago
"I am afraid the big hit will come in the second wave" Quite possible, yes, but do not live in fear, friend. This is a great time to eradicate fear and embrace the chaos :)
- Balgair 7y ago
  Now we're asking the real questions! But what facet of Chaos are we to embrace? The undivided power of it? Or to pray to one of the gods and seek their favor? Grandfather Nurgle may be good now, but in 6 months the skull throne may need skulls. Slaneesh seems to have been usurped recently.
  - daxfohl 7y ago
    Was this intended as a response to something else?
    - Balgair 7y ago
      https://warhammerfantasy.fandom.com/wiki/Chaos https://warhammerfantasy.fandom.com/wiki/Chaos