3 ms·

At this point, with an R0 at 6, it's likely the number of people that have been infected is 100X bigger, which means the real fatality rate is 100X smaller. An

by w3mmpp 7y ago

At this point, with an R0 at 6, it's likely the number of people that have been infected is 100X bigger, which means the real fatality rate is 100X smaller. An no, current tests can't show that because those people are likely cured already and never have been counted. So, if we say today the CFR is officially at 1%, 100X smaller would be 1 over 10,000. To me, it's definitely not acceptable to lockdown people for such a death rate. That 100 factor could end up being different but the reasoning is the same, we didn't count most of the infected people.

fragsworth 7y ago
You ignored my question, you already said less than 1% is unacceptable, and just repeated yourself. Forget COVID, I'm referring to a future theoretical disease - at what death rate does a nationally enforced lockdown of a few weeks become acceptable?
- w3mmpp 7y ago
  10 times the rate of the flu is a good basis I think, or 1% death rate. But confirmed, not like right now where we all know we haven't counted a lot of people in that number of cases and therefore the death rate is a lot lower. Another thing, it's not weeks, we're talking months here, May 1st it's not gonna be back to business as it was before.
analog31 7y ago
Currently reported cases in New York is 160038 Multiply by 100, get 16 million Population of New York state is 19 million Maybe there's still more to learn about the COVID-19.
- w3mmpp 7y ago
  Remember, this virus has circulated weeks before the confinement, so don't you think a doubling R0 have completely changed the number of cases that have been modeled so far, and therefore the CFR? Of course we have much to learn and this new R0 number is part of that learning process, but imo, we can't think like 2 days ago when we thought the R0 was between 2 and 3.
  - analog31 7y ago
    Still, the total reported cases in the US is 460k, so if there are 100 unreported cases for every reported case, that's 46 million, or 1 in 5 people. But I'm open to new evidence. At the very least, we'll know in a week if this still makes sense. ;-)
    - w3mmpp 7y ago
      I'm just reading about that city in Germany, Gangelt, where they did those blood tests to 1000 people, they found out that 2% are actively infected, and 14% have the antibodies (indicating a prior infection): https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tes... So we're talking 1 in 7 for that particular city.

by w3mmpp 7y ago

fragsworth 7y ago

You ignored my question, you already said less than 1% is unacceptable, and just repeated yourself. Forget COVID, I'm referring to a future theoretical disease - at what death rate does a nationally enforced lockdown of a few weeks become acceptable?

w3mmpp 7y ago
10 times the rate of the flu is a good basis I think, or 1% death rate. But confirmed, not like right now where we all know we haven't counted a lot of people in that number of cases and therefore the death rate is a lot lower. Another thing, it's not weeks, we're talking months here, May 1st it's not gonna be back to business as it was before.

analog31 7y ago

Currently reported cases in New York is 160038 Multiply by 100, get 16 million Population of New York state is 19 million Maybe there's still more to learn about the COVID-19.

w3mmpp 7y ago
Remember, this virus has circulated weeks before the confinement, so don't you think a doubling R0 have completely changed the number of cases that have been modeled so far, and therefore the CFR? Of course we have much to learn and this new R0 number is part of that learning process, but imo, we can't think like 2 days ago when we thought the R0 was between 2 and 3.
- analog31 7y ago
  Still, the total reported cases in the US is 460k, so if there are 100 unreported cases for every reported case, that's 46 million, or 1 in 5 people. But I'm open to new evidence. At the very least, we'll know in a week if this still makes sense. ;-)
  - w3mmpp 7y ago
    I'm just reading about that city in Germany, Gangelt, where they did those blood tests to 1000 people, they found out that 2% are actively infected, and 14% have the antibodies (indicating a prior infection): https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tes... So we're talking 1 in 7 for that particular city.