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> The kind of inflation we have right now mostly affects the stock market Annualized S&P 500 Return with Dividends Reinvested from april 2010 to april 2020 are

by mrep 7y ago

> The kind of inflation we have right now mostly affects the stock market Annualized S&P 500 Return with Dividends Reinvested from april 2010 to april 2020 are 9.694% [0] which is entirely in line with historical returns [1]. I wouldn't call that inflation. [0]: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index#Performance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index#Performance

cryptica 7y ago
How is a guaranteed risk-free average return of 10% per year normal in any way? How is it not an indication of inflation at the top? Why is it so hard to believe that corporations may in fact be extremely inefficient and subsist and thrive almost entirely because of free credit from the Fed? It's no coincidence that the stock market started to rally and corporate monopolies started to form at around the same time as the gold standard was abolished. We have never had so many massive companies in the history of mankind. Most employees who work there don't feel that they're adding value (e.g. https://www.newyorker.com/books/under-review/the-bullshit-job-boom https://www.newyorker.com/books/under-review/the-bullshit-jo...), most of their customers don't feel that they're getting value (how long do they have to put you on hold on the phone? How many times do we only choose a company because there are no other alternatives?)... Who is getting value out of their existence?
- mrep 7y ago
  > Guaranteed risk free If you invested 2 months ago, you are down 20%. It is definitely not risk free. > It's no coincidence that the stock market started to really pick up, and monopolies started to form at around the same time as the gold standard was abolished. Annualized DJIA Returns with Dividends Reinvested from 1897 to 1970 was 9.536% [0]. [0]: https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/
  - cryptica 7y ago
    I said 10% average per year is risk free. If it collapses and never recovers for 50 years, then I'll agree with you but we both know that's not going to happen. It's not going to happen precisely because the system is a scam and in reality there is no risk. The only real long term risk to stock prices is total societal collapse. If the government keeps bailing out inefficient corporations, eventually they will get exactly that. Now there are many less painful options available, but by constantly brushing them under the carpet, the government and the fed are making total socio-economic collapse an increasingly appealing option to solve our systemic problems. They could just try to solve the problems now, but instead they prefer to let the tension build... Just like it did before WW2.

by mrep 7y ago

cryptica 7y ago

How is a guaranteed risk-free average return of 10% per year normal in any way? How is it not an indication of inflation at the top? Why is it so hard to believe that corporations may in fact be extremely inefficient and subsist and thrive almost entirely because of free credit from the Fed? It's no coincidence that the stock market started to rally and corporate monopolies started to form at around the same time as the gold standard was abolished. We have never had so many massive companies in the history of mankind. Most employees who work there don't feel that they're adding value (e.g. https://www.newyorker.com/books/under-review/the-bullshit-job-boom https://www.newyorker.com/books/under-review/the-bullshit-jo...), most of their customers don't feel that they're getting value (how long do they have to put you on hold on the phone? How many times do we only choose a company because there are no other alternatives?)... Who is getting value out of their existence?

mrep 7y ago
> Guaranteed risk free If you invested 2 months ago, you are down 20%. It is definitely not risk free. > It's no coincidence that the stock market started to really pick up, and monopolies started to form at around the same time as the gold standard was abolished. Annualized DJIA Returns with Dividends Reinvested from 1897 to 1970 was 9.536% [0]. [0]: https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/
- cryptica 7y ago
  I said 10% average per year is risk free. If it collapses and never recovers for 50 years, then I'll agree with you but we both know that's not going to happen. It's not going to happen precisely because the system is a scam and in reality there is no risk. The only real long term risk to stock prices is total societal collapse. If the government keeps bailing out inefficient corporations, eventually they will get exactly that. Now there are many less painful options available, but by constantly brushing them under the carpet, the government and the fed are making total socio-economic collapse an increasingly appealing option to solve our systemic problems. They could just try to solve the problems now, but instead they prefer to let the tension build... Just like it did before WW2.