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Gold value (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-prices https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-prices) Apr 2000: $274/oz Apr 2005: $425/oz (+55%) Apr

Gold value (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-prices https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-prices) Apr 2000: $274/oz Apr 2005: $425/oz (+55%) Apr 2010: $1132/oz (+166% in 5 years, +313% in 10 years) Apr 2015: $1175/oz (+3% in 5 years, +176% in 10 years) Apr 2020: $1647/oz (+40% in 5 years, +45% in 10 years) So we can see that Gold was massively inflating until 2010, when you say the fed started printing money, since then it's stabilised, even with the current panic House prices in the US (https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/ https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/) Apr 2000: $134k Apr 2005: $199k Apr 2010: $183k Apr 2015: $210k Apr 2019: $269k So 2010-2019 is a 46% increase, or 4.5% per year, so about 50% for 10 years. 2000 to 2010 is 36%, but the charts indicate we're nearing the top of another house price bubble (1998-2007 was an 80% increase over 9 years, or 7.5% increase per year) So I'm not sure your assertions that the increase of these values are due to quantitive easing over the last 10 years holds.

mrep 7y ago
Also, annualized S&P 500 Return with Dividends Reinvested from april 2010 to april 2020 are 9.694% [0] which is entirely in line with historical returns [1]. [0]: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index#Performance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index#Performance
bsanr2 7y ago
Look again. The 2015-2020 increases dwarf the 2010-2015 increases. What changed?
- iso1631 7y ago
  Same things that changed in 2000-2005 and 2005-2010.
  - bsanr2 7y ago
    Please specify.
    - iso1631 7y ago
      Many many factors not relating to quantative easing
      - bsanr2 7y ago
        That's incredibly nonspecific.
TooCreative 7y ago
2010, when you say the fed started printing money I did not say the FED started printing money in 2010. I said nothing about the time before 2010 or about the future. Your argument would have been much more precise and useful if you focussed on the same timeframe as I did: 2010-2020. Mixing it with the time before and what you read in the charts for the future muddled it to a degree that I find it hard to reply.
- simias 7y ago
  I thought you implied that they started printing vastly more starting in 2010: >The reason why inflation "officially" is lower then what one would expect given the amount of money printed lies in the way it is calculated. I think comparing over a long period of time makes sense to see if something really fundamentally changed about the value of money lately. >Your argument would have been much more precise and useful if you focussed on the same timeframe as I did: 2010-2020. If things were really different over the past decade than any other, you'd expect to find discrepancies when comparing to previous decades. You're the one "muddling" it here in my (poorly educated) opinion. I must add that you using Bitcoin, an insanely speculative asset, as an example of things becoming more expensive over the past decade didn't really help your point in my mind. It seems to imply that Bitcoin's value is somewhat stable and we can use it as a reference for the value of a dollar. If you used Beanie Baby prices instead we're in the middle of a huge deflation! Real Estate is not quite as bad as a reference point, but we have to remember that the decade started right at the end of the mortgage crisis so that distorted the prices somewhat (in what direction? I'm not sure).
  - TooCreative 7y ago
    If things were really different over the past decade than any other I did not state that. I only stated that FED-money doubled in 2010-2020 and the value of money halfed. I said nothing about any other decade. Maybe the same happened in 2000-2010 or any other decade, maybe not. It is not part of my statement.
roenxi 7y ago
You're quoting figures that a lump of rock has doubled and doubled in value since 2000 (plus a little bit). The BLS inflation calculator [0] tells me that inflation would have gotten the price to $420 by now (heh) which is not a doubling in anyone's book. The trend is persistent, the rock is much the same as it has ever been. Do you have an alternate thesis to QE for why this is happening or are you happy to write it off as a mystery? [0] https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
- iso1631 7y ago
  Gold started increasing in value in 2001 QE didn't start until November 2008 (gold = $814) That stopped by Nobember 2014 (gold = $1232). 51% increase in gold over 6 years, or 7% per year. That is far lower than the increase in gold in other 6 year periods which didn't have QE.
  - roenxi 7y ago
    A very fair point with which I can only agree. Care to hazard a guess as to why gold is rising though? The rock isn't changing.
    - dillonmckay 7y ago
      We can’t print more gold.
    - DoreenMichele 7y ago
      Gold gets used in electronics, so real world demand is up, and it's actually fairly hard to extract. This is being made harder by environmental protections that are making it illegal in many places to do things that are more efficient but come at a high environmental cost. I wish we would actively foster panning for gold. It's environmentally friendly. It's "blue collar" work that doesn't require a college degree, spiffy resume and do forth and it doesn't take much gold per year to potentially support someone who otherwise might be homeless or flipping burgers (or both).

mrep 7y ago

Also, annualized S&P 500 Return with Dividends Reinvested from april 2010 to april 2020 are 9.694% [0] which is entirely in line with historical returns [1]. [0]: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index#Performance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index#Performance

bsanr2 7y ago

Look again. The 2015-2020 increases dwarf the 2010-2015 increases. What changed?

iso1631 7y ago
Same things that changed in 2000-2005 and 2005-2010.
- bsanr2 7y ago
  Please specify.
  - iso1631 7y ago
    Many many factors not relating to quantative easing
    - bsanr2 7y ago
      That's incredibly nonspecific.

TooCreative 7y ago

2010, when you say the fed started printing money I did not say the FED started printing money in 2010. I said nothing about the time before 2010 or about the future. Your argument would have been much more precise and useful if you focussed on the same timeframe as I did: 2010-2020. Mixing it with the time before and what you read in the charts for the future muddled it to a degree that I find it hard to reply.

simias 7y ago
I thought you implied that they started printing vastly more starting in 2010: >The reason why inflation "officially" is lower then what one would expect given the amount of money printed lies in the way it is calculated. I think comparing over a long period of time makes sense to see if something really fundamentally changed about the value of money lately. >Your argument would have been much more precise and useful if you focussed on the same timeframe as I did: 2010-2020. If things were really different over the past decade than any other, you'd expect to find discrepancies when comparing to previous decades. You're the one "muddling" it here in my (poorly educated) opinion. I must add that you using Bitcoin, an insanely speculative asset, as an example of things becoming more expensive over the past decade didn't really help your point in my mind. It seems to imply that Bitcoin's value is somewhat stable and we can use it as a reference for the value of a dollar. If you used Beanie Baby prices instead we're in the middle of a huge deflation! Real Estate is not quite as bad as a reference point, but we have to remember that the decade started right at the end of the mortgage crisis so that distorted the prices somewhat (in what direction? I'm not sure).
- TooCreative 7y ago
  If things were really different over the past decade than any other I did not state that. I only stated that FED-money doubled in 2010-2020 and the value of money halfed. I said nothing about any other decade. Maybe the same happened in 2000-2010 or any other decade, maybe not. It is not part of my statement.

roenxi 7y ago

You're quoting figures that a lump of rock has doubled and doubled in value since 2000 (plus a little bit). The BLS inflation calculator [0] tells me that inflation would have gotten the price to $420 by now (heh) which is not a doubling in anyone's book. The trend is persistent, the rock is much the same as it has ever been. Do you have an alternate thesis to QE for why this is happening or are you happy to write it off as a mystery? [0] https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

iso1631 7y ago
Gold started increasing in value in 2001 QE didn't start until November 2008 (gold = $814) That stopped by Nobember 2014 (gold = $1232). 51% increase in gold over 6 years, or 7% per year. That is far lower than the increase in gold in other 6 year periods which didn't have QE.
- roenxi 7y ago
  A very fair point with which I can only agree. Care to hazard a guess as to why gold is rising though? The rock isn't changing.
  - dillonmckay 7y ago
    We can’t print more gold.
  - DoreenMichele 7y ago
    Gold gets used in electronics, so real world demand is up, and it's actually fairly hard to extract. This is being made harder by environmental protections that are making it illegal in many places to do things that are more efficient but come at a high environmental cost. I wish we would actively foster panning for gold. It's environmentally friendly. It's "blue collar" work that doesn't require a college degree, spiffy resume and do forth and it doesn't take much gold per year to potentially support someone who otherwise might be homeless or flipping burgers (or both).