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Survivorship bias. Our system is broken, humanity needs a way to encourage success without punishing failure. Failure shouln't be hunger and homelessness...This

by 533474 7y ago

Survivorship bias. Our system is broken, humanity needs a way to encourage success without punishing failure. Failure shouln't be hunger and homelessness...This will be another generation of hopeless dreamers lost in the looming financial depression. Why is our antidote hope against the adversity of going against all the odds?. Congrats to those who made it but more recognition to those who failed and managed to overcome misery

pc86 7y ago
> Our system is broken Citation needed. > humanity needs a way to encourage success without punishing failure Serious question - why? You state this as an objective fact with no argument for it. > Failure [shouldn't] be hunger and homelessness If you're smart about it, it isn't. What's wrong with saying "yes you should probably have savings to fall back on in case this doesn't work out?" What's wrong with saying "if you throw caution and all reasonableness to the wind and blow your life's savings trying to sell Amway products, your neighbor isn't going to be burdened with paying your bills while you look for another job?"
- rsk67 7y ago
  This might be the most HN on-brand comment I've ever seen
- nscalf 7y ago
  I think people are too quick to discount the importance of failure and feeling bad. If failing has no consequence, there will be far less motivation. However, in my opinion, this is a balance. Failure has to be sufficiently painful, but no more than that. From the research I’ve done, two major items have made failure too painful: stagnant wages and rapidly inflating rent prices. People can no longer hold onto savings in case something doesn’t work because they barely make ends meet. Our system is inherently broken. We need unions, raises in minimum wage, worker strikes, etc. This is not going to be a generation of people going through economic hardship just because of the economy, but also because we are no longer willing to fight for each other.
  - frockington1 7y ago
    How would unions help anything? Modern examples (such as teachers unions) seem to reward mediocrity and encourage paying into failing pensions
    - hdctambien 7y ago
      If unions were the cause of "mediocrity" then there should be better teaching in states that don't have teacher unions right? Ranking of states without unions (2011) https://www.businessinsider.com/states-where-teachers-unions-are-illegal-2011-2 https://www.businessinsider.com/states-where-teachers-unions... Wisconsin after unions were removed (2017) https://money.cnn.com/2017/11/17/news/economy/wisconsin-act-10-teachers/index.html https://money.cnn.com/2017/11/17/news/economy/wisconsin-act-...
  - pc86 7y ago
    How does unionization depress rising rent?
- swiley 7y ago
  You don’t have savings just after graduation. Also: thinking about these people helps the rest of us, the economy is extremely fragile because most people aren’t able to save (high rent+low wages) and have limited mobility. I used to think all the SWEs getting paid well would make the world a better place because they were more capable of dealing with complex problems but comments like this make me question that.
- charlesu 7y ago
  > If you're smart about it, it isn't. Citation needed. Whether you have something to fall back on in the event of failure has a lot to do with where and whom you're born to. It's pretty difficult to have a fall back option as a kid from a poor coal mining town with 20% unemployment. If you move out west with no network and lose your job soon after, yes, you can find yourself hungry and homeless in short order. Whether we acknowledge it or not, many of us are just one bout of extended unemployment or illness away from homelessness.
austincheney 7y ago
> without punishing failure Why not punish failure?
- einpoklum 7y ago
  1. Because most people fail a lot in a lot of things. 2. Because failure often doesn't depend on you, and extremely often is at least partially dependent on external factors and context. 3. Because it's not that useful (psychologically) as opposed to other engagement approahces. 4. Because it can and will be misused to punish those who are disfavorable to the punishing establishment. and last but not least: 5. Because the social systems which need to be in place in order to punish failure, and the ethos necessary for the punishers and for legitimization of the punishers' concrete acts, are themselves repressive to the general populace and make life a worse experience for everyone.
- bsanr2 7y ago
  >It's inhumane to oversee a system with the capability to feed and house its entire population and refuse to do so for procedural reasons. (Welfare gap, Section 8 waiting lists) >The system does not dole out failure meritocratically, therefore the existence of a total failure state will mean earnest and reasonably industrious individuals will still fail by chance alone. (Rust belt) >The official sanctioning of a failure state is the impetus for a black market safety net, where failure is precluded at the cost of rule of law. (Drug-dealing, prostitution, gang-controlled ghettoes) It's a hole in the ship's hull.
- HumblyTossed 7y ago
  If you do, it shouldn't be: >Failure shouln't be hunger and homelessness...
- guiriduro 7y ago
  What is failure? Is it failure to deliver some social good, even if your financial costs exceed your income? The system needs a reset.
- charlesu 7y ago
  Would you rather optimize for people succeeding or optimize for people not failing? They are not the same thing.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
einpoklum 7y ago
> to encourage success Scammers, arbitrage stock-traders, and opioid drug marketers can also achieve success... On the other hand, some endeavors "succeed" by not-failing and being out of sight and out of mind, e.g. a plumbing installation. You don't think of your "daily plumbing success". So, I'd say not success which should be encouraged, it is well-directed and well-applied effort. PS - The plumbing example can well be adapted to nearly any pursuit, definitely including software.
- dgb23 7y ago
  > You don't think of your "daily plumbing success". Initially I had to laugh at this one, but why not? Robustness is something that seems to be very hard to measure, communicate and sell until something bad happens. I think one of the IT fields that is struggling with this is security, because the problem is most apparent there.
  - yourapostasy 7y ago
    > Robustness is something that seems to be very hard to measure, communicate and sell until something bad happens. This is endemic to business and is especially widespread in contemporary American-style business, and the general case seems to be a failure in pricing all kinds of tail risk. I suspect a key challenge in this space is the unsolved principal agent problem. I think the principal agent problem is rampant because pricing information is extremely lossy information compression; only the grossest outcomes are recorded in the market. Those who exploit the principal agent problem rely upon externalities to succeed, and those externalities are not timely or fine-grained reflected in the compressed/price information. Reputation systems lossily add the missing information back into the market as a side-channel. But what externalities to record is a whole other can of worms.
golergka 7y ago
That's exactly the kind of best intentions that the road to hell is paved with.
asdfman123 7y ago
You should look at statistics about how many countries are rising out of desperate poverty and joining the rich world. It's gotten so good that we've forgotten what desperate poverty even looks like.

by 533474 7y ago

pc86 7y ago

> Our system is broken Citation needed. > humanity needs a way to encourage success without punishing failure Serious question - why? You state this as an objective fact with no argument for it. > Failure [shouldn't] be hunger and homelessness If you're smart about it, it isn't. What's wrong with saying "yes you should probably have savings to fall back on in case this doesn't work out?" What's wrong with saying "if you throw caution and all reasonableness to the wind and blow your life's savings trying to sell Amway products, your neighbor isn't going to be burdened with paying your bills while you look for another job?"

rsk67 7y ago
This might be the most HN on-brand comment I've ever seen
nscalf 7y ago
I think people are too quick to discount the importance of failure and feeling bad. If failing has no consequence, there will be far less motivation. However, in my opinion, this is a balance. Failure has to be sufficiently painful, but no more than that. From the research I’ve done, two major items have made failure too painful: stagnant wages and rapidly inflating rent prices. People can no longer hold onto savings in case something doesn’t work because they barely make ends meet. Our system is inherently broken. We need unions, raises in minimum wage, worker strikes, etc. This is not going to be a generation of people going through economic hardship just because of the economy, but also because we are no longer willing to fight for each other.
- frockington1 7y ago
  How would unions help anything? Modern examples (such as teachers unions) seem to reward mediocrity and encourage paying into failing pensions
  - hdctambien 7y ago
    If unions were the cause of "mediocrity" then there should be better teaching in states that don't have teacher unions right? Ranking of states without unions (2011) https://www.businessinsider.com/states-where-teachers-unions-are-illegal-2011-2 https://www.businessinsider.com/states-where-teachers-unions... Wisconsin after unions were removed (2017) https://money.cnn.com/2017/11/17/news/economy/wisconsin-act-10-teachers/index.html https://money.cnn.com/2017/11/17/news/economy/wisconsin-act-...
- pc86 7y ago
  How does unionization depress rising rent?
swiley 7y ago
You don’t have savings just after graduation. Also: thinking about these people helps the rest of us, the economy is extremely fragile because most people aren’t able to save (high rent+low wages) and have limited mobility. I used to think all the SWEs getting paid well would make the world a better place because they were more capable of dealing with complex problems but comments like this make me question that.
charlesu 7y ago
> If you're smart about it, it isn't. Citation needed. Whether you have something to fall back on in the event of failure has a lot to do with where and whom you're born to. It's pretty difficult to have a fall back option as a kid from a poor coal mining town with 20% unemployment. If you move out west with no network and lose your job soon after, yes, you can find yourself hungry and homeless in short order. Whether we acknowledge it or not, many of us are just one bout of extended unemployment or illness away from homelessness.

austincheney 7y ago

> without punishing failure Why not punish failure?

einpoklum 7y ago
1. Because most people fail a lot in a lot of things. 2. Because failure often doesn't depend on you, and extremely often is at least partially dependent on external factors and context. 3. Because it's not that useful (psychologically) as opposed to other engagement approahces. 4. Because it can and will be misused to punish those who are disfavorable to the punishing establishment. and last but not least: 5. Because the social systems which need to be in place in order to punish failure, and the ethos necessary for the punishers and for legitimization of the punishers' concrete acts, are themselves repressive to the general populace and make life a worse experience for everyone.
bsanr2 7y ago
>It's inhumane to oversee a system with the capability to feed and house its entire population and refuse to do so for procedural reasons. (Welfare gap, Section 8 waiting lists) >The system does not dole out failure meritocratically, therefore the existence of a total failure state will mean earnest and reasonably industrious individuals will still fail by chance alone. (Rust belt) >The official sanctioning of a failure state is the impetus for a black market safety net, where failure is precluded at the cost of rule of law. (Drug-dealing, prostitution, gang-controlled ghettoes) It's a hole in the ship's hull.
HumblyTossed 7y ago
If you do, it shouldn't be: >Failure shouln't be hunger and homelessness...
guiriduro 7y ago
What is failure? Is it failure to deliver some social good, even if your financial costs exceed your income? The system needs a reset.
charlesu 7y ago
Would you rather optimize for people succeeding or optimize for people not failing? They are not the same thing.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

einpoklum 7y ago

> to encourage success Scammers, arbitrage stock-traders, and opioid drug marketers can also achieve success... On the other hand, some endeavors "succeed" by not-failing and being out of sight and out of mind, e.g. a plumbing installation. You don't think of your "daily plumbing success". So, I'd say not success which should be encouraged, it is well-directed and well-applied effort. PS - The plumbing example can well be adapted to nearly any pursuit, definitely including software.

dgb23 7y ago
> You don't think of your "daily plumbing success". Initially I had to laugh at this one, but why not? Robustness is something that seems to be very hard to measure, communicate and sell until something bad happens. I think one of the IT fields that is struggling with this is security, because the problem is most apparent there.
- yourapostasy 7y ago
  > Robustness is something that seems to be very hard to measure, communicate and sell until something bad happens. This is endemic to business and is especially widespread in contemporary American-style business, and the general case seems to be a failure in pricing all kinds of tail risk. I suspect a key challenge in this space is the unsolved principal agent problem. I think the principal agent problem is rampant because pricing information is extremely lossy information compression; only the grossest outcomes are recorded in the market. Those who exploit the principal agent problem rely upon externalities to succeed, and those externalities are not timely or fine-grained reflected in the compressed/price information. Reputation systems lossily add the missing information back into the market as a side-channel. But what externalities to record is a whole other can of worms.

golergka 7y ago

That's exactly the kind of best intentions that the road to hell is paved with.

asdfman123 7y ago

You should look at statistics about how many countries are rising out of desperate poverty and joining the rich world. It's gotten so good that we've forgotten what desperate poverty even looks like.