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Why do you guys assume that this crisis will hit software development? As far as I can see software development will be one of the fields least hit, possibly e

by chvid 7y ago

Why do you guys assume that this crisis will hit software development? As far as I can see software development will be one of the fields least hit, possibly even benifiting, by the fallout of the Corona-virus.

wcoenen 7y ago
See other posts about all the software startups firing readers of this forum. edit: latest related post on the front page is about OYO furloughing thousands https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/08/indias-oyo-furloughs-thousands-of-employees-as-revenue-drops-by-over-50/ https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/08/indias-oyo-furloughs-thous...
- chvid 7y ago
  Oyo is an Indian hotel chain - of course it will suffer. I get the allure of the sky is falling but aren’t we missing just how privileged we are having an office job that easily can be done remotely?
  - wcoenen 7y ago
    > Oyo is an Indian hotel chain - of course it will suffer All software jobs are affected by overall economic activity. For example, I'm a software dev working in the niche sector of testing and certification of electronic payment systems. If economic activity goes down, then usage of payment systems goes down, so investments in those payment systems will go down, so our revenue will go down.
  - reroute1 7y ago
    Wtf are you talking about lol
crispyporkbites 7y ago
Everyone loses in a recession.
- chvid 7y ago
  The dot com bust and 9/11 is a good example of the opposite. If you were in real estate around then there was no recession at all.
- joejerryronnie 7y ago
  Not everyone, some people prosper enormously in a recession - or more specifically, some people make bold investments during the worst part of a recession when everyone else thinks the world is ending. Those investments typically do very well when we exit the recession.
  - frockington1 7y ago
    Agreed, recessions are when money is made. If you look at '00 and '08/09, investing in the down years is incredibly profitable
- rchaud 7y ago
  Except for those that have capital, or access to capital at cheap rates, and can buy up assets when their prices are depressed.
duiker101 7y ago
Unfortunately, my twitter feed is filled with developers being hit and I have also experienced it without being directly hit. There are many ways that the crisis can hit software development. Investors are bleeding cash left and right and don't want to invest in anything right now. Products lose appeal. Companies don't want to pick up new software etc.. etc...
- frockington1 7y ago
  In your opinion, where the people being laid off working on valuable projects? I know its one sample, but I'm wondering if all the virus is doing is tree shaking all of the Uber for ______ ideas
vkou 7y ago
Most software is either sold to non-software businesses, or is developed to serve non-software businesses. Most non-software businesses are about to take a wallop. A ban on travel, and ten million Americans filing for unemployment in two weeks will do that sort of thing.
anonytrary 7y ago
Why do you assume it won't be hit? Everyone knows software is relatively safe, but the deeper the layoffs get, the more likely it is that they push into highly skilled tech jobs.
TheOtherHobbes 7y ago
Fields that will be hit: anything that relies on ad revenue, international or trans-national tourism and travel (badly), b&m retail (badly), online retail [1], entertainment [also 1], web support services, corporate web dev, real estate, fintech. Fields that may grow: medical services and support, small-scale short-distance tourism (after 6-12 months), small scale web dev, military spending, government support and consultancy, space[2]. Basically a bimodal economy with a lot of money coming directly from government spending instead of via investors, but some small-scale green shoot opportunities for small local-interest businesses. The big corporates will survive, but with job losses and a general contraction. Medium-sized businesses and wannabe-unicorn gamble startups will be hit hardest. (Some will be ok. Many won't.) [1] You might expect it to grow, but supply chains are going to be damaged and most people are going to have less money. Some people will have no money at all. Selected narrow sectors may buck the trend. [2] Because there won't be a lot of other obvious places to invest. Also, everyone loves a bit of drama and optimism.
- varjag 7y ago
  Tourism and travel will resurge in 2021, when people who missed this year's vacation (i.e. everyone) will book for the next summer.
  - baron_harkonnen 7y ago
    Unemployed people typically don't take vacations. People that are nervous about their financial future also don't take vacations. The people that do are going to take less extravagant ones. I have a lot of friends in the travel industry, and no one there expects travel to return to what is was a few months ago for many years.
  - rchaud 7y ago
    > "missed this year's vacation (i.e. everyone)" How many people in the US do you think take vacations every year? 10 million filed for unemployment benefits in the last 2 weeks. They wont' be champing at the bit to spend money on luxuries anytime soon.
baron_harkonnen 7y ago
Because it already has? This week has been brutal at nearly every start up I know, 30-50% layoffs have been the norm for most companies I've seen. Granted engineers are probably getting cut at a smaller percent than other roles, but they're in there. Anyone who has worked in industry awhile can also attest to the fact that more recent years the drive to make every company a "tech" company has lead to a large amount of unnecessary engineering hires. Companies are rushing to build out more and more stuff, but very little of that is really deriving any value. Tech people were really very lucky in the last recession as Tech started to boom just as everything else started to really feel it.

by chvid 7y ago

wcoenen 7y ago

See other posts about all the software startups firing readers of this forum. edit: latest related post on the front page is about OYO furloughing thousands https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/08/indias-oyo-furloughs-thousands-of-employees-as-revenue-drops-by-over-50/ https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/08/indias-oyo-furloughs-thous...

chvid 7y ago
Oyo is an Indian hotel chain - of course it will suffer. I get the allure of the sky is falling but aren’t we missing just how privileged we are having an office job that easily can be done remotely?
- wcoenen 7y ago
  > Oyo is an Indian hotel chain - of course it will suffer All software jobs are affected by overall economic activity. For example, I'm a software dev working in the niche sector of testing and certification of electronic payment systems. If economic activity goes down, then usage of payment systems goes down, so investments in those payment systems will go down, so our revenue will go down.
- reroute1 7y ago
  Wtf are you talking about lol

crispyporkbites 7y ago

Everyone loses in a recession.

chvid 7y ago
The dot com bust and 9/11 is a good example of the opposite. If you were in real estate around then there was no recession at all.
joejerryronnie 7y ago
Not everyone, some people prosper enormously in a recession - or more specifically, some people make bold investments during the worst part of a recession when everyone else thinks the world is ending. Those investments typically do very well when we exit the recession.
- frockington1 7y ago
  Agreed, recessions are when money is made. If you look at '00 and '08/09, investing in the down years is incredibly profitable
rchaud 7y ago
Except for those that have capital, or access to capital at cheap rates, and can buy up assets when their prices are depressed.

duiker101 7y ago

Unfortunately, my twitter feed is filled with developers being hit and I have also experienced it without being directly hit. There are many ways that the crisis can hit software development. Investors are bleeding cash left and right and don't want to invest in anything right now. Products lose appeal. Companies don't want to pick up new software etc.. etc...

frockington1 7y ago
In your opinion, where the people being laid off working on valuable projects? I know its one sample, but I'm wondering if all the virus is doing is tree shaking all of the Uber for ______ ideas

vkou 7y ago

Most software is either sold to non-software businesses, or is developed to serve non-software businesses. Most non-software businesses are about to take a wallop. A ban on travel, and ten million Americans filing for unemployment in two weeks will do that sort of thing.

anonytrary 7y ago

Why do you assume it won't be hit? Everyone knows software is relatively safe, but the deeper the layoffs get, the more likely it is that they push into highly skilled tech jobs.

TheOtherHobbes 7y ago

Fields that will be hit: anything that relies on ad revenue, international or trans-national tourism and travel (badly), b&m retail (badly), online retail [1], entertainment [also 1], web support services, corporate web dev, real estate, fintech. Fields that may grow: medical services and support, small-scale short-distance tourism (after 6-12 months), small scale web dev, military spending, government support and consultancy, space[2]. Basically a bimodal economy with a lot of money coming directly from government spending instead of via investors, but some small-scale green shoot opportunities for small local-interest businesses. The big corporates will survive, but with job losses and a general contraction. Medium-sized businesses and wannabe-unicorn gamble startups will be hit hardest. (Some will be ok. Many won't.) [1] You might expect it to grow, but supply chains are going to be damaged and most people are going to have less money. Some people will have no money at all. Selected narrow sectors may buck the trend. [2] Because there won't be a lot of other obvious places to invest. Also, everyone loves a bit of drama and optimism.

varjag 7y ago
Tourism and travel will resurge in 2021, when people who missed this year's vacation (i.e. everyone) will book for the next summer.
- baron_harkonnen 7y ago
  Unemployed people typically don't take vacations. People that are nervous about their financial future also don't take vacations. The people that do are going to take less extravagant ones. I have a lot of friends in the travel industry, and no one there expects travel to return to what is was a few months ago for many years.
- rchaud 7y ago
  > "missed this year's vacation (i.e. everyone)" How many people in the US do you think take vacations every year? 10 million filed for unemployment benefits in the last 2 weeks. They wont' be champing at the bit to spend money on luxuries anytime soon.

baron_harkonnen 7y ago

Because it already has? This week has been brutal at nearly every start up I know, 30-50% layoffs have been the norm for most companies I've seen. Granted engineers are probably getting cut at a smaller percent than other roles, but they're in there. Anyone who has worked in industry awhile can also attest to the fact that more recent years the drive to make every company a "tech" company has lead to a large amount of unnecessary engineering hires. Companies are rushing to build out more and more stuff, but very little of that is really deriving any value. Tech people were really very lucky in the last recession as Tech started to boom just as everything else started to really feel it.