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And as the article notes—the demand is not for more flour but just a demand for the same amount of flour but in smaller bags which is exactly what you would exp

And as the article notes—the demand is not for more flour but just a demand for the same amount of flour but in smaller bags which is exactly what you would expect. Bread-making is not such an alien or quaint skill set. People have either already made bread, or know someone who makes it. We have friends or family members who are into Martha Stewart, Food Network, or Bon Appétit. Especially with the internet, we are not confused people who are panic buying flour, but people who know (or can find out online) that making bread is not especially challenging, it’s just time-consuming, and much of that time is spent waiting. It’s hard to fit making bread into your schedule if you go to work every day, but if you’re stuck at home anyway and the store is low on bread…

juanbyrge 7y ago
The article is literally about a huge increase in demand for more flour by consumers. The industry is "working round the clock" to meet demand. People have a lot of extra time at home so they are baking a lot more, which they did not do in the past. Thankfully there's enough wheat to meet the increased demand, but the bottleneck is currently packaging. I've personally had to order flour in bulk (50lb bags) online.
- klodolph 7y ago
  > The article is literally about a huge increase in demand for more flour Demand for flour from grocery stores not overall demand for flour. From the article: > Grocery sales of flour were up 92%… > Alex Waugh, director general of Nabim, says the issue isn't being able to mill enough flour - but the lack of capacity to pack it into small bags for retailers. > Only around 4% of UK flour is sold through shops and supermarkets… If you multiply that out, the bump in demand would only account for a 4% increase in total flour consumption… but I’m willing to bet dollars to donuts that flour consumption through some other channels (bakeries, restaurants) is down, and you would need to account for that.
  - juanbyrge 7y ago
    I think you may be underestimating the sudden impact on the demand for flour and wheat during the pandemic. There are two behaviors that did not exist too much before. First, a vast number of consumers are suddenly stockpiling larger quantities of not only flour but other nonperishable goods such as breads and cereals and pastas. Before they only had enough quantity for days or weeks. Now it is on the order of months. Second, people are baking a lot more as a hobby/comfort food/stress relief than before the pandemic. Certainly some channels have closed (like dine-in restaurants), but some are still operating strongly (e.g. Dominos Pizza is experiencing massive increase in demand). > "We've increased production about four-fold but we're nowhere close to meeting the demand we've seen." In terms of the overall impact on the flour/wheat market it's hard to tell, but I'd be guessing that it's double-digit % increase in demand. It would be interesting to see some exact numbers on this.
    - tonyedgecombe 7y ago
      other nonperishable goods such as breads Bread is perishable.
    - klodolph 7y ago
      What you’re describing is a shock to the supply chain and distribution, but not a problem with the amount of flour. Any panic buying is temporary. Buyers simply cannot exhaust our capacity to produce flour in the steady state, but since the supply chain responds so slowly to changes, they can cause temporary disruption.

juanbyrge 7y ago

The article is literally about a huge increase in demand for more flour by consumers. The industry is "working round the clock" to meet demand. People have a lot of extra time at home so they are baking a lot more, which they did not do in the past. Thankfully there's enough wheat to meet the increased demand, but the bottleneck is currently packaging. I've personally had to order flour in bulk (50lb bags) online.

klodolph 7y ago
> The article is literally about a huge increase in demand for more flour Demand for flour from grocery stores not overall demand for flour. From the article: > Grocery sales of flour were up 92%… > Alex Waugh, director general of Nabim, says the issue isn't being able to mill enough flour - but the lack of capacity to pack it into small bags for retailers. > Only around 4% of UK flour is sold through shops and supermarkets… If you multiply that out, the bump in demand would only account for a 4% increase in total flour consumption… but I’m willing to bet dollars to donuts that flour consumption through some other channels (bakeries, restaurants) is down, and you would need to account for that.
- juanbyrge 7y ago
  I think you may be underestimating the sudden impact on the demand for flour and wheat during the pandemic. There are two behaviors that did not exist too much before. First, a vast number of consumers are suddenly stockpiling larger quantities of not only flour but other nonperishable goods such as breads and cereals and pastas. Before they only had enough quantity for days or weeks. Now it is on the order of months. Second, people are baking a lot more as a hobby/comfort food/stress relief than before the pandemic. Certainly some channels have closed (like dine-in restaurants), but some are still operating strongly (e.g. Dominos Pizza is experiencing massive increase in demand). > "We've increased production about four-fold but we're nowhere close to meeting the demand we've seen." In terms of the overall impact on the flour/wheat market it's hard to tell, but I'd be guessing that it's double-digit % increase in demand. It would be interesting to see some exact numbers on this.
  - tonyedgecombe 7y ago
    other nonperishable goods such as breads Bread is perishable.
  - klodolph 7y ago
    What you’re describing is a shock to the supply chain and distribution, but not a problem with the amount of flour. Any panic buying is temporary. Buyers simply cannot exhaust our capacity to produce flour in the steady state, but since the supply chain responds so slowly to changes, they can cause temporary disruption.