3 ms·

What’s the basis for this recession being dotcom level for tech and engineers broadly?

tarsinge 7y ago
It could be hard for startups because of lower consumer and enterprise demand, plus VC funding drying up, but that’s still hypothetical I guess.
rswail 7y ago
It's likely to be dotcom level+ for all industries. At this point, casual and low level employees have been laid off, businesses are conserving cash and negotiating with their lenders. This is not a financial recession, its a completely different beast. We are in uncharted waters of a connected global economy being affected globally by the pandemic. The unemployment numbers are at least 10 million in the last 2 months for the US. Similar proportional numbers are applicable in all economies. This is likely to continue for the next 6 months and is likely to have recurring volatility as areas relax or increase social distancing to protect life and maintain the health system. Assuming best case of a vaccine being available for general use this time next year, it will take 3-6 months to roll out before things are back to "normal". So that's not until Q3 2021 at best. In the meantime, we can hopefully have palliative and curative treatments for those infected and, with luck, the virus doesn't mutate sufficiently to cause lack of immunity to those who have survived infection. We're about to test out MMT vs current supply side vs (neo-)Kensyian macroeconomics. World trade was already affected by the stupid and misguided US instigated tariff barriers. In addition, we have to deal with the existing US mal-administration and the volatility of an election with all of the ridiculous nature of the way US states conduct their election process.
- ianai 7y ago
  6.61 million new unemployment filings last week bringing the total to over 16.6 million.
copenja 7y ago
The idea is that the economic effects will have ripples. Google depends on advertising dollars right? Do you think Disney is spending the same cash advertising Disney hotels right now? It's a ripple effect. Movie theaters, bars, golf courses, gymborees, concert venues, wedding planners, travel agents, hair dressers, massage parlors, party supply stores, wedding dress stores, SAT prep centers go out of business first. Then, home remodel contractors, flooring supply depots, life coaches, car dealerships, finacial advisors, nanny's, and more. Then, advertising collapses slaying Google and Facebook. And, finally, as the whole house of cards comes crashing down, people cancel Netflix.

It could be hard for startups because of lower consumer and enterprise demand, plus VC funding drying up, but that’s still hypothetical I guess.

rswail 7y ago

It's likely to be dotcom level+ for all industries. At this point, casual and low level employees have been laid off, businesses are conserving cash and negotiating with their lenders. This is not a financial recession, its a completely different beast. We are in uncharted waters of a connected global economy being affected globally by the pandemic. The unemployment numbers are at least 10 million in the last 2 months for the US. Similar proportional numbers are applicable in all economies. This is likely to continue for the next 6 months and is likely to have recurring volatility as areas relax or increase social distancing to protect life and maintain the health system. Assuming best case of a vaccine being available for general use this time next year, it will take 3-6 months to roll out before things are back to "normal". So that's not until Q3 2021 at best. In the meantime, we can hopefully have palliative and curative treatments for those infected and, with luck, the virus doesn't mutate sufficiently to cause lack of immunity to those who have survived infection. We're about to test out MMT vs current supply side vs (neo-)Kensyian macroeconomics. World trade was already affected by the stupid and misguided US instigated tariff barriers. In addition, we have to deal with the existing US mal-administration and the volatility of an election with all of the ridiculous nature of the way US states conduct their election process.

ianai 7y ago
6.61 million new unemployment filings last week bringing the total to over 16.6 million.

copenja 7y ago

The idea is that the economic effects will have ripples. Google depends on advertising dollars right? Do you think Disney is spending the same cash advertising Disney hotels right now? It's a ripple effect. Movie theaters, bars, golf courses, gymborees, concert venues, wedding planners, travel agents, hair dressers, massage parlors, party supply stores, wedding dress stores, SAT prep centers go out of business first. Then, home remodel contractors, flooring supply depots, life coaches, car dealerships, finacial advisors, nanny's, and more. Then, advertising collapses slaying Google and Facebook. And, finally, as the whole house of cards comes crashing down, people cancel Netflix.