4 ms·
If R0 is truly 5.7 - roughly 82.46% of the population must become immune before “herd immunity” kicks in. ((R0 − 1)/R0) is known as the “herd immunity threshol
by Endlessly 6y ago
If R0 is truly 5.7 - roughly 82.46% of the population must become immune before “herd immunity” kicks in.
((R0 − 1)/R0) is known as the “herd immunity threshold” — that is, with an R0 value of 5.7 the computation would be ((5.7 - 1)/5.7) or 82.46%
Learn more here, — “Herd Immunity”: A Rough Guide:
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/52/7/911/299077#3862683 https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/52/7/911/299077#3862683
As a comparison, here are the R0 values of other well-known infectious diseases:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
- berberous 6y agoI read this recently: I've noticed a fair number of people assuming the herd immunity threshold, 1 - 1/R0, is the total proportion of the population infected. It isn't; it's the proportion of the population immune (i.e. has had the disease; in this model that's assumed to confer immunity) at which the epidemic stops growing. The total proportion of the population infected is called the epidemic final size (I'll call it 'F'), and is given by F = 1 - e-R0*F This is higher. Lots higher. For R0 = 2, it's 80%. For R0 = 3.4 (the WHO estimate), it's 96%.
- Endlessly 6y agoAppreciate the information, though citing notable sources might help others understand and add credibility too. For example, “Herd immunity & epidemic final size” covers the topic: http://alizon.ouvaton.org/Report2_Immunization.html http://alizon.ouvaton.org/Report2_Immunization.html