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Yes, I agree with all of that - but you are misreading my point. In the OP people are talking about 'the models'? Well, who's models exactly? What is the offic

by jariel 7y ago

Yes, I agree with all of that - but you are misreading my point. In the OP people are talking about 'the models'? Well, who's models exactly? What is the official one? And which ones are going to get widely communicated and have authority in the eyes of the public. I am not indicating that some group of University researchers, somewhere in America are 'in cahoots' with Donald Trump's political team, for example. IHME, for example, surely will just publish whatever they think, but this is not 'communication' and not at a national level. The plebes are not reading their data. What information the government collects directly, the information they chose to highlight in press briefings, the information they want to be communicated in their talking points, how it is presented ... this is controlled and filtered.

vanniv 7y ago
The IHME model is, at least in America, the most widely reported model, and is reportedly being relied upon by Dr. Fauci and the Trump Administration for the bulk of their own forecasting. I tend to read a lot of left-leaning and right-leaning social media, and IHME's model is the only one that I routinely find both camps talking about and linking to. Admittedly, on the right, most of the pointing has been to mock or demean it, showing the apparent continual need to revise downward as some sort of evidence of malfeasance or bias -- but even so, the model's predictions are being reviewed regularly on both sides of the spectrum. On the left, I've also seen people remark on this particular model -- usually holding it up as proof that covid is a serious, scary problem that the Trump Administration is being too casual about. Each group seeing the model differently, and drawing different conclusions from it -- but people are, in fact, looking at this model and it's predictions regularly. You can call people you don't like "the plebes", and dismiss them as rubes -- but doing so tells me more about you than it does about them.

by jariel 7y ago

vanniv 7y ago

The IHME model is, at least in America, the most widely reported model, and is reportedly being relied upon by Dr. Fauci and the Trump Administration for the bulk of their own forecasting. I tend to read a lot of left-leaning and right-leaning social media, and IHME's model is the only one that I routinely find both camps talking about and linking to. Admittedly, on the right, most of the pointing has been to mock or demean it, showing the apparent continual need to revise downward as some sort of evidence of malfeasance or bias -- but even so, the model's predictions are being reviewed regularly on both sides of the spectrum. On the left, I've also seen people remark on this particular model -- usually holding it up as proof that covid is a serious, scary problem that the Trump Administration is being too casual about. Each group seeing the model differently, and drawing different conclusions from it -- but people are, in fact, looking at this model and it's predictions regularly. You can call people you don't like "the plebes", and dismiss them as rubes -- but doing so tells me more about you than it does about them.