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Diamond princess is a non-stochastic sample, with all its attendant biases.
by sooheon 7y ago
Diamond princess is a non-stochastic sample, with all its attendant biases.
- throwaway_pdp09 7y agoWhat does that mean?
- kaybe 7y agoPeople on cruise ships are usually not a good sample of the general population, for example, the mean age is quite high.
- btilly 7y agoBut it is also a sample with few in the sickest bracket, who are a disproportionate fraction of deaths. And the number of deaths is sufficiently small that it is consistent with a wide range of death rates.
- projektfu 7y agoAnother way to put it is that the study is enumerative and not analytic. Unfortunately, just about every study being done on COVID is enumerative. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analytic_and_enumerative_statistical_studies https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analytic_and_enumerative_sta...
- rsync 7y ago"Diamond princess is a non-stochastic sample, with all its attendant biases." But isn't it a non-stochastic sample in the right direction ? Which is to say, the demographics of budget cruise line passengers are almost a worst-case. They represent the most susceptible cohort. What we can infer from Diamond Princess is that the general population will, all else being equal, fare better statistically.
- sooheon 7y agoYes, but I was responding to a claim that we already had "solid numbers on the fatality rate". They're far from solid. We have a small sample that gives us an idea of the CFR, for that demographic, but this tells us very little about global IFR.