4 ms·

> "I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number — and this is just my hunch — but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because

> "I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number — and this is just my hunch — but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this and it's very mild, they'll get better very rapidly. They don't even see a doctor. They don't even call a doctor. You never hear about those people,..." At the time, the person who said that was called an idiot.

troelsSteegin 7y ago
Even an idiot is right twice a day?
- lurquer 7y ago
  30 days ago many HN posters were saying this. I guess they were all idiots too. They don't say it much any more, though... why get downvoted? The fact that this has already spread through the US will become self-evident soon enough. ("The peak is coming in CA any day now! Just wait...")
  - ardy42 7y ago
    > 30 days ago many HN posters were saying this. I guess they were all idiots too. Quite possibly. There are all kinds.
    - lurquer 7y ago
      https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Study-investigates-if-COVID-19-came-to-Calif-in-15187085.php https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Study-investigates-if... Idiots popping up everywhere, it seems...
      - pengaru 7y ago
        That article is comparing NY to CA with the expectation that they should be more similar. CA is a very car-centric state, the public transportation situation is a joke. I'd expect this alone to tamp down the spread relative to NY, considering the density of NYC and how ubiquitous public transportation is there.
      - etrabroline 7y ago
        >He does not advocate lifting social distancing rules I believe the "idiots" referred to above are the people who blindly assumed without evidence the experimental hypothesis of this study simply as an excuse to avoid social distancing and self isolation.
Gibbon1 7y ago
Who do we believe a bullshit artist at the economist or Bob Wachter Chair, UCSF Dept of Medicine. > @Bob_Wachter > 3/ Another interesting #: @ucsf, we only test pts w/ symptoms, who all think "I have Covid.” But only ~4% of our tests are +, meaning most folks who think they have it, don’t. https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1247722427620012032 https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1247722427620012032
- jrfinkel 7y ago
  I don’t think it’s that simple about the tests. They’re less accurate than people think. Here’s one article about it (if you google you can find more): https://www.wsj.com/articles/questions-about-accuracy-of-coronavirus-tests-sow-worry-11585836001 https://www.wsj.com/articles/questions-about-accuracy-of-cor... Also, if you don’t trust the WSJ either (I wouldn’t blame you) here is an article from Nature Medicine that has a comparison of nasal vs stool tests for covid, and Figure 1b really drives home the high rate of false negatives for nasal swab tests compared to stool tests (and throat swabs are even worse than nasal swabs): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0817-4?fbclid=IwAR31EGO3WLw6LQrY5tOYUj6jPhT_fo-xU5Lb71g1azH9KtIO0ZcvosDusbA https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0817-4?fbclid=IwA...
  - dhc02 7y ago
    Yep. In fact, false negatives of current test are a function of time since the onset of symptoms: Day 1? ~7% false negative Day 10? 40% false negative Day 20? 90% false negative That's really high, and it seems anecdotally likely that a majority of tests have been administered to people who are 7-10 days or more post-symptom-onset. Here's the tweet discussing this: https://twitter.com/c0nc0rdance/status/1248094573928251398/ https://twitter.com/c0nc0rdance/status/1248094573928251398/ And here's the paper: https://t.co/aSdFeLzopH?amp=1 https://t.co/aSdFeLzopH?amp=1
Jordrok 7y ago
He's still an idiot. He chose to believe that not because of research or statistics or the advice of people with expertise, but because it was convenient. This was at the beginning of March when there had only been 11 deaths. He was making the argument that this is no worse than the normal seasonal flu, because he was loathe to take any drastic preventative action that might disrupt his precious stock market. Well, here we are now, thousands have died, with thousands more on the way, and the economic damage has already been done. That's what happens when you let an idiot run the country.
- etrabroline 7y ago
  I'm loathe to defend the current US president, but almost no Western country took this seriously until the last possible minute. There is clearly a deeper ideological issue infecting the entire West.
  - mcv 7y ago
    It's absolutely true that most western countries underestimated this. East-Asian countries were better prepared and more willing to take drastic action to do what's necessary. Western countries assumed that, like SARS, Asia would solve this. Turns out it's way more contagious than SARS. Still, once the seriousness became clear, most countries did take action. Trump continued to deny and spread misinformation, even to this day.
  - ebcode 7y ago
    > There is clearly a deeper ideological issue infecting the entire West. Amen.
  - darkteflon 7y ago
    Australia and New Zealand have done a superlative job: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/have-australia-new-zealand-stopped-covid-19-in-its-tracks-coronavirus https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/have-australia....
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]

troelsSteegin 7y ago

Even an idiot is right twice a day?

lurquer 7y ago
30 days ago many HN posters were saying this. I guess they were all idiots too. They don't say it much any more, though... why get downvoted? The fact that this has already spread through the US will become self-evident soon enough. ("The peak is coming in CA any day now! Just wait...")
- ardy42 7y ago
  > 30 days ago many HN posters were saying this. I guess they were all idiots too. Quite possibly. There are all kinds.
  - lurquer 7y ago
    https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Study-investigates-if-COVID-19-came-to-Calif-in-15187085.php https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Study-investigates-if... Idiots popping up everywhere, it seems...
    - pengaru 7y ago
      That article is comparing NY to CA with the expectation that they should be more similar. CA is a very car-centric state, the public transportation situation is a joke. I'd expect this alone to tamp down the spread relative to NY, considering the density of NYC and how ubiquitous public transportation is there.
    - etrabroline 7y ago
      >He does not advocate lifting social distancing rules I believe the "idiots" referred to above are the people who blindly assumed without evidence the experimental hypothesis of this study simply as an excuse to avoid social distancing and self isolation.

Gibbon1 7y ago

Who do we believe a bullshit artist at the economist or Bob Wachter Chair, UCSF Dept of Medicine. > @Bob_Wachter > 3/ Another interesting #: @ucsf, we only test pts w/ symptoms, who all think "I have Covid.” But only ~4% of our tests are +, meaning most folks who think they have it, don’t. https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1247722427620012032 https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1247722427620012032

jrfinkel 7y ago
I don’t think it’s that simple about the tests. They’re less accurate than people think. Here’s one article about it (if you google you can find more): https://www.wsj.com/articles/questions-about-accuracy-of-coronavirus-tests-sow-worry-11585836001 https://www.wsj.com/articles/questions-about-accuracy-of-cor... Also, if you don’t trust the WSJ either (I wouldn’t blame you) here is an article from Nature Medicine that has a comparison of nasal vs stool tests for covid, and Figure 1b really drives home the high rate of false negatives for nasal swab tests compared to stool tests (and throat swabs are even worse than nasal swabs): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0817-4?fbclid=IwAR31EGO3WLw6LQrY5tOYUj6jPhT_fo-xU5Lb71g1azH9KtIO0ZcvosDusbA https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0817-4?fbclid=IwA...
- dhc02 7y ago
  Yep. In fact, false negatives of current test are a function of time since the onset of symptoms: Day 1? ~7% false negative Day 10? 40% false negative Day 20? 90% false negative That's really high, and it seems anecdotally likely that a majority of tests have been administered to people who are 7-10 days or more post-symptom-onset. Here's the tweet discussing this: https://twitter.com/c0nc0rdance/status/1248094573928251398/ https://twitter.com/c0nc0rdance/status/1248094573928251398/ And here's the paper: https://t.co/aSdFeLzopH?amp=1 https://t.co/aSdFeLzopH?amp=1

Jordrok 7y ago

He's still an idiot. He chose to believe that not because of research or statistics or the advice of people with expertise, but because it was convenient. This was at the beginning of March when there had only been 11 deaths. He was making the argument that this is no worse than the normal seasonal flu, because he was loathe to take any drastic preventative action that might disrupt his precious stock market. Well, here we are now, thousands have died, with thousands more on the way, and the economic damage has already been done. That's what happens when you let an idiot run the country.

etrabroline 7y ago
I'm loathe to defend the current US president, but almost no Western country took this seriously until the last possible minute. There is clearly a deeper ideological issue infecting the entire West.
- mcv 7y ago
  It's absolutely true that most western countries underestimated this. East-Asian countries were better prepared and more willing to take drastic action to do what's necessary. Western countries assumed that, like SARS, Asia would solve this. Turns out it's way more contagious than SARS. Still, once the seriousness became clear, most countries did take action. Trump continued to deny and spread misinformation, even to this day.
- ebcode 7y ago
  > There is clearly a deeper ideological issue infecting the entire West. Amen.
- darkteflon 7y ago
  Australia and New Zealand have done a superlative job: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/have-australia-new-zealand-stopped-covid-19-in-its-tracks-coronavirus https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/have-australia....
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]