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a) The economic snowball we're finally starting to see for renewables is largely driven by governments finally being forced by the undeniable reality to take re
by _bxg1 7y ago
a) The economic snowball we're finally starting to see for renewables is largely driven by governments finally being forced by the undeniable reality to take real regulation steps.
b) The economic cost of waiting 10 years to address an exponential process is going to far outweigh the cost there would've been to give an extra "oomph" to action, I'm sure.
- roenxi 7y ago> largely driven by governments ... tak[ing] real regulation steps Which ones? I'm only aware of serious efforts in Germany and they basically torpedoed their own electricity use (their per-capita trends aren't good). There aren't that many governments who could stomach doing that to their people.
- _bxg1 7y agoI think a lot of it has been driven indirectly by vehicle regulation. The past few years have seen several major countries establish end-dates for gasoline powered vehicles. This has spurred development of battery technology - very important for wind and solar - and also sent a market signal about the future role that fossil fuels play in global society. Even if a country hasn't explicitly banned fossil fuels yet for electricity generation, the writing is on the wall and it's only a matter of time. Investors and corporations are seeing that renewables are an inevitable future, and adjusting their strategies accordingly.
- ineedasername 7y agoGovernmental regulations are not merely proscriptive, i.e., "You shall not pollute above these levels or we will fine you/shut you down". They are also prescriptive: "If you build renewable infrastructure we shall provide direct subsidies/indirect tax breaks to support it." Both are regulations.
- nick_kline 7y ago"Exponential processes just don't really exist in nature". Hopefully no one (cough, politicians) says this anymore, after Covid-19.
- ineedasername 7y ago"Exponential processes just don't really exist in nature" Wait, do people actually say that?
- cultus 7y agoExponential processes don't exist. Anything that looks exponential is the just exponential part of a logistic-like curve.
- zxcmx 7y agoWell you very quickly run out of mass, space, hosts etc so on a long enough timescale... Like an exponential process that starts at 1 atom with a 1 year doubling time would affect all the matter in the universe in less than a century (lets pretend it happens spookily at whatever distance).
- ineedasername 7y agoOn a long enough timescale they may burn themselves out, but on a long enough time scale everything comes to an end. Things happen, and then they stop happening. Exponential growth occurs, and then it stops occurring. Its eventual end does not disprove its prior existence.
- zxcmx 7y agoSure, we can agree it's exponential until it's not. And then we can start to think about whether it's going to be a logistic curve or oscillate and what factors might amplify or damp and our model is much more interesting. Like, the original statement is about systems that people study and model, and how the exponential condition can really only exist for brief periods relative to the lifetime of almost all systems of interest.
- ineedasername 7y agoOscillation and a sort of meta-stability is not uncommon, and something I personally find fascinating!