4 ms·

Covid-19 Projections

20 points by robomartin 7y ago

Leary 7y ago
Glad to see the US projection decreasing from 80k to 60k. The UK is still at 66k, I hope they abandoned their herd immunity strategy like the government said.
systemvoltage 7y ago
Wouldn't there be a second peak as soon as we lift social distancing and other measures of containing this virus we have currently in place? These models assume that the same level of societal restrictions continue to be present into the future?
- _bxg1 7y ago
  I believe these models just don't even try to project subsequent peaks.
  - systemvoltage 7y ago
    We are no where near herd immunity for COVID-19. I don't see how we can keep the cases low and open up the economy. Wall Street says otherwise - market is up this week.
_bxg1 7y ago
I'm in Texas and our projections look shockingly optimistic. At time of writing this says we will, at peak, fill only 30% of our ICU beds capacity, or 75% in the worst-case scenario. I want to believe this is true but it's hard to believe.
byproxy 7y ago
> assuming full social distancing through May 2020 Are there any projections that have the social distancing set as a variable, from 0% to 100%?
hughdbrown 7y ago
Can someone explain how this model works? I see 1000-ish deaths in the US on the 5th. On the 7th, there are 1900-ish. What is the grounds for believing that the curve is headed down shortly after this? Or, what is the calculation behind the estimate of deaths for day[n + 1]?
biolurker1 7y ago
So after June 1 no more deaths at all. Virus is beaten. How can this model be accurate. It's not.
- rotexo 7y ago
  they cover this in the FAQs, which are worth reading. They indicate that, if distancing measures are maintained, the first wave will be done by early June. They explicitly say that a second wave is likely unless extra measures, like contact tracing and mass screening, are taken. I also think anyone who is using this model to make (edit) healthcare resource allocation decisions knows about the limitations of the model, and is using multiple models.
foxyv 7y ago
This projection seems kind of optimistic based on the figures we are seeing. They may need to update it tomorrow.

20 points by robomartin 7y ago

Glad to see the US projection decreasing from 80k to 60k. The UK is still at 66k, I hope they abandoned their herd immunity strategy like the government said.

systemvoltage 7y ago

Wouldn't there be a second peak as soon as we lift social distancing and other measures of containing this virus we have currently in place? These models assume that the same level of societal restrictions continue to be present into the future?

_bxg1 7y ago
I believe these models just don't even try to project subsequent peaks.
- systemvoltage 7y ago
  We are no where near herd immunity for COVID-19. I don't see how we can keep the cases low and open up the economy. Wall Street says otherwise - market is up this week.

_bxg1 7y ago

I'm in Texas and our projections look shockingly optimistic. At time of writing this says we will, at peak, fill only 30% of our ICU beds capacity, or 75% in the worst-case scenario. I want to believe this is true but it's hard to believe.

byproxy 7y ago

> assuming full social distancing through May 2020 Are there any projections that have the social distancing set as a variable, from 0% to 100%?

hughdbrown 7y ago

Can someone explain how this model works? I see 1000-ish deaths in the US on the 5th. On the 7th, there are 1900-ish. What is the grounds for believing that the curve is headed down shortly after this? Or, what is the calculation behind the estimate of deaths for day[n + 1]?

biolurker1 7y ago

So after June 1 no more deaths at all. Virus is beaten. How can this model be accurate. It's not.

rotexo 7y ago
they cover this in the FAQs, which are worth reading. They indicate that, if distancing measures are maintained, the first wave will be done by early June. They explicitly say that a second wave is likely unless extra measures, like contact tracing and mass screening, are taken. I also think anyone who is using this model to make (edit) healthcare resource allocation decisions knows about the limitations of the model, and is using multiple models.

foxyv 7y ago

This projection seems kind of optimistic based on the figures we are seeing. They may need to update it tomorrow.