5 ms·

Dr. Michael J. Burry, M.D. (Vanderbilt), setup a twitter account[1] just to address some of the negative consequences of overreacting to covid-19. He's not norm

Dr. Michael J. Burry, M.D. (Vanderbilt), setup a twitter account[1] just to address some of the negative consequences of overreacting to covid-19. He's not normally a social media type, to say the least. [1]https://twitter.com/michaeljburry https://twitter.com/michaeljburry

altcognito 7y ago
Yeah he’s pitching that California has already reached herd immunity. The premise is that covid-19 arrived in fall and that unlike everywhere else in the world, it arrived, spread without so much as being noticed at the ER.
- __s 7y ago
  To clarify why that's a crazy premise: Italy
  - kyuudou 7y ago
    I'd say it's a bit disingenuous comparing Italy with California demographically - we're talking about one of the largest population per capita of elderly who are well-known for living with multiple generations on the same property if not the same household AND who have traditional body language mannerisms that involve lots of hand-to-face and lips-to-face contact. Bit less of all that in Cali.
    - cameldrv 7y ago
      They've done sampled serological tests in at least one town in Italy. If you compare that against excess deaths in March, you get an Infection Fatality Rate of 2%. Perhaps it will be better in the U.S. due to age structure, but perhaps it will be worse due to the high prevalence of obesity and diabetes. Either way, California won't have reached herd immunity until approximately 600,000 people are dead, barring some therapeutic breakthrough.
      - altcognito 7y ago
        How can you use excess deaths to influence the IFR when excess deaths is across the entire population but the actual infection only reaches a small percentage?
        cameldrv 7y ago
        Deaths in that town were about 10x normal for the month of March. I estimate the IFR by looking at the serological results showing 70% were infected, and observe that 1.4% of the population of the town died in March. 1.4%/70%=2% of those infected died. Now it could be that there was some other cause for the death rate in the town to be 10x normal, but I think that's pretty unlikely. That said, I'm sure there are excess deaths from other causes, like heart attacks that didn't go to the hospital because they were overloaded, etc, but you could consider those deaths to be indirectly from COVID as well.
    - sharken 7y ago
      Indeed, if anything you should be comparing Italy with New York. The data for Corona virus points to elderly in poor health and people with pre-existing illnesses being at risk. If you don’t agree please explain how Monaco with a very old but rather healthy population has seen one death so far and how come Bangladesh and Pakistan with a population of 300M+ have seen a total of 80 deaths.
      - kyuudou 7y ago
        Monaco has half the population of Walnut Creek, CA, a lot of them very affluent and not there much of the year. Then there's the issue of 1. how was the testing done (IF AT ALL) 2. how accurate that test was (read up on PCR if you don't agree) 3. how the cause of death was determined. I show you a CDC explanation for how to determine official cause of death from[1]: ""When reporting cause of death...use any information available, such as medical history, medical records, laboratory tests, an autopsy report, or other sources....best clinical judgement..." In all cases variations of the flu are much worse and not worth crippling the US and global economy over. If you have any other questions, feel free to ask someone like Dr. Burry who is much more qualified than I, at least, to answer such questions. [1] https://t.co/sr5CuouckM?amp=1 https://t.co/sr5CuouckM?amp=1
        __s 7y ago
        The ordinary flu would be much worse if we didn't vaccinate for it
        sharken 7y ago
        Agreed, in 2018 Denmark followed the WHO recommendation and produced a flu vaccine for three types of the flu. Unfortunately a fourth type was the dominant type that year and that was not included in the vaccine. The vaccine for this year will be for four type of the flu, 2 for type A and 2 for type B.
        sharken 7y ago
        I fully agree that test accuracy is a problem and that cause of death when Corona virus is involved varies a lot between countries. Excess mortality could be one way of getting more information, though I don’t know when those data are available.
- malandrew 7y ago
  If this actually happened, why did we not observe other incidents like what happened in the Live Care Center in Kirkland, Washington? 35 people died. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/coronavirus-nursing-home-kirkland-life-care.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/coronavirus-nursing-ho... This has ripped through like wildfire in highly vulnerable communities. Also, would we not have observed a lot of medical staff becoming sick like they are now? I just find it very hard to believe that this could have happened earlier without anyone noticing it given how it's greatly impacted pockets in very newsworthy ways. Another example was that family in New Jersey where some members of the family died within hours of one another. 7 sick, 4 died. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-family-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-famil... Even California has vulnerable pockets in places that would have been canaries in the coal mine.
  - lurquer 7y ago
    "as many as 380,000 people die of the infections in LTCFs [long-term care facilities] every year." https://www.cdc.gov/longtermcare/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/longtermcare/index.html An increase of a several percent would not be noticed.
    - altcognito 7y ago
      Typically the staff isn’t at risk for life threatening respiratory viruses. They might catch a cold, but it will look nothing like covid.
- Mc_Big_G 7y ago
  This is because he can't accept the face that CA implemented SIP before everyone else and what that implies about the administration's failure to recommend it. His politics are clearly driving his assertions.
jhanschoo 7y ago
When on the other hand I hear of states arguing over masks and ventilators, and of NY being over capacity, I can't empathize with his current advocacy for an immediate loosening of stay-at-home orders (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-b...), as well as sentiments like this https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1247338200269389824 https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1247338200269389824 > Domestic violence "flourishing." This happening right now. Infuriating that governments sacrificed these women and children with blockhead policies lacking all nuance and understanding. Politicians and media ran roughshod over these victims. #COVID19 It's ironic that in the same tweet that he criticizes governments for lacking all nuance, he fails to note that the two anecdotes reported in the story come from China and Spain, which are among the hardest hit, which are likely the most justified for harsh measures and lockdowns. He does point out many severe negative consequences, but they seem to be based off wrong assumptions. There is no universal testing because there are not enough tests. There is no recommendation for the seemingly promising drugs because afaict there is not enough to meet demand. I don't see why "But there is no time for that." If there isn't enough of it anyway. The situation may change but his current unnuanced criticism that doesn't seem to address aspects of his recommendation that seem to me need to be addressed does not convince me.
Mc_Big_G 7y ago
We really need to stop putting so much faith in someone's opinion because they have "Dr." in front of their name. It turns out "smart" people can be incredibly stupid and/or mislead by their own prejudices and political leanings.
- throwaway0a5e 7y ago
  > It turns out "smart" people can be incredibly stupid and/or mislead by their own prejudices and political leanings. If I had a nickle for every time I read "senior software engineer at X" in a profile that was spewing ideological drivel I wouldn't need to work for a living.
cameldrv 7y ago
The thing is, yes, he's an MD, but his job is an investor. I don't know what his book looks like, but many funds carry leverage. It's possible that having the lockdown continue wipes out his considerable fortune. Under these circumstances, even very intelligent people can fall prey to seemingly nonsensical motivated reasoning.

altcognito 7y ago

Yeah he’s pitching that California has already reached herd immunity. The premise is that covid-19 arrived in fall and that unlike everywhere else in the world, it arrived, spread without so much as being noticed at the ER.

__s 7y ago
To clarify why that's a crazy premise: Italy
- kyuudou 7y ago
  I'd say it's a bit disingenuous comparing Italy with California demographically - we're talking about one of the largest population per capita of elderly who are well-known for living with multiple generations on the same property if not the same household AND who have traditional body language mannerisms that involve lots of hand-to-face and lips-to-face contact. Bit less of all that in Cali.
  - cameldrv 7y ago
    They've done sampled serological tests in at least one town in Italy. If you compare that against excess deaths in March, you get an Infection Fatality Rate of 2%. Perhaps it will be better in the U.S. due to age structure, but perhaps it will be worse due to the high prevalence of obesity and diabetes. Either way, California won't have reached herd immunity until approximately 600,000 people are dead, barring some therapeutic breakthrough.
    - altcognito 7y ago
      How can you use excess deaths to influence the IFR when excess deaths is across the entire population but the actual infection only reaches a small percentage?
      - cameldrv 7y ago
        Deaths in that town were about 10x normal for the month of March. I estimate the IFR by looking at the serological results showing 70% were infected, and observe that 1.4% of the population of the town died in March. 1.4%/70%=2% of those infected died. Now it could be that there was some other cause for the death rate in the town to be 10x normal, but I think that's pretty unlikely. That said, I'm sure there are excess deaths from other causes, like heart attacks that didn't go to the hospital because they were overloaded, etc, but you could consider those deaths to be indirectly from COVID as well.
  - sharken 7y ago
    Indeed, if anything you should be comparing Italy with New York. The data for Corona virus points to elderly in poor health and people with pre-existing illnesses being at risk. If you don’t agree please explain how Monaco with a very old but rather healthy population has seen one death so far and how come Bangladesh and Pakistan with a population of 300M+ have seen a total of 80 deaths.
    - kyuudou 7y ago
      Monaco has half the population of Walnut Creek, CA, a lot of them very affluent and not there much of the year. Then there's the issue of 1. how was the testing done (IF AT ALL) 2. how accurate that test was (read up on PCR if you don't agree) 3. how the cause of death was determined. I show you a CDC explanation for how to determine official cause of death from[1]: ""When reporting cause of death...use any information available, such as medical history, medical records, laboratory tests, an autopsy report, or other sources....best clinical judgement..." In all cases variations of the flu are much worse and not worth crippling the US and global economy over. If you have any other questions, feel free to ask someone like Dr. Burry who is much more qualified than I, at least, to answer such questions. [1] https://t.co/sr5CuouckM?amp=1 https://t.co/sr5CuouckM?amp=1
      - __s 7y ago
        The ordinary flu would be much worse if we didn't vaccinate for it
        sharken 7y ago
        Agreed, in 2018 Denmark followed the WHO recommendation and produced a flu vaccine for three types of the flu. Unfortunately a fourth type was the dominant type that year and that was not included in the vaccine. The vaccine for this year will be for four type of the flu, 2 for type A and 2 for type B.
      - sharken 7y ago
        I fully agree that test accuracy is a problem and that cause of death when Corona virus is involved varies a lot between countries. Excess mortality could be one way of getting more information, though I don’t know when those data are available.
malandrew 7y ago
If this actually happened, why did we not observe other incidents like what happened in the Live Care Center in Kirkland, Washington? 35 people died. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/coronavirus-nursing-home-kirkland-life-care.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/coronavirus-nursing-ho... This has ripped through like wildfire in highly vulnerable communities. Also, would we not have observed a lot of medical staff becoming sick like they are now? I just find it very hard to believe that this could have happened earlier without anyone noticing it given how it's greatly impacted pockets in very newsworthy ways. Another example was that family in New Jersey where some members of the family died within hours of one another. 7 sick, 4 died. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-family-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyregion/new-jersey-famil... Even California has vulnerable pockets in places that would have been canaries in the coal mine.
- lurquer 7y ago
  "as many as 380,000 people die of the infections in LTCFs [long-term care facilities] every year." https://www.cdc.gov/longtermcare/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/longtermcare/index.html An increase of a several percent would not be noticed.
  - altcognito 7y ago
    Typically the staff isn’t at risk for life threatening respiratory viruses. They might catch a cold, but it will look nothing like covid.
Mc_Big_G 7y ago
This is because he can't accept the face that CA implemented SIP before everyone else and what that implies about the administration's failure to recommend it. His politics are clearly driving his assertions.

jhanschoo 7y ago

When on the other hand I hear of states arguing over masks and ventilators, and of NY being over capacity, I can't empathize with his current advocacy for an immediate loosening of stay-at-home orders (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-b...), as well as sentiments like this https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1247338200269389824 https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1247338200269389824 > Domestic violence "flourishing." This happening right now. Infuriating that governments sacrificed these women and children with blockhead policies lacking all nuance and understanding. Politicians and media ran roughshod over these victims. #COVID19 It's ironic that in the same tweet that he criticizes governments for lacking all nuance, he fails to note that the two anecdotes reported in the story come from China and Spain, which are among the hardest hit, which are likely the most justified for harsh measures and lockdowns. He does point out many severe negative consequences, but they seem to be based off wrong assumptions. There is no universal testing because there are not enough tests. There is no recommendation for the seemingly promising drugs because afaict there is not enough to meet demand. I don't see why "But there is no time for that." If there isn't enough of it anyway. The situation may change but his current unnuanced criticism that doesn't seem to address aspects of his recommendation that seem to me need to be addressed does not convince me.

Mc_Big_G 7y ago

We really need to stop putting so much faith in someone's opinion because they have "Dr." in front of their name. It turns out "smart" people can be incredibly stupid and/or mislead by their own prejudices and political leanings.

throwaway0a5e 7y ago
> It turns out "smart" people can be incredibly stupid and/or mislead by their own prejudices and political leanings. If I had a nickle for every time I read "senior software engineer at X" in a profile that was spewing ideological drivel I wouldn't need to work for a living.

cameldrv 7y ago

The thing is, yes, he's an MD, but his job is an investor. I don't know what his book looks like, but many funds carry leverage. It's possible that having the lockdown continue wipes out his considerable fortune. Under these circumstances, even very intelligent people can fall prey to seemingly nonsensical motivated reasoning.