You underestimate how much Trump has motivated the Democratic party and basically anyone not on his side. Voter turn-out went through the roof in 2018. Without

You underestimate how much Trump has motivated the Democratic party and basically anyone not on his side. Voter turn-out went through the roof in 2018. Without the Covid-19 crisis, it would certainly stay that high or get even higher. According to polls, Biden does have a better chance among independents and swing voters, even among disillusioned GOP members. The only chance for Trump is a massive depression or even suppression of voter turnout. Otherwise his base doesn't matter.