3 ms·

All of these candidates were better than Trump, by any objective measure like polls, IQ, eloquency, politics, grasp of domestic and international issues. Biden

All of these candidates were better than Trump, by any objective measure like polls, IQ, eloquency, politics, grasp of domestic and international issues. Biden and Sanders had been pulling crowds just as large as Trump had been. The only path to victory for Trump is a really low voter turnout. Biden is beating him in polls, by a much larger margin than Clinton did. Even in "battleground" states. Covid-19 is the only factor on the horizon that could lead to the kind of voter turnout that Trump needs to win. Otherwise, again from polling and the mid-term elections, you can expect a record voter turnout, especially on the democratic side.

rootusrootus 7y ago
Trump has a rock solid base, so he only needs to convince a few swing voters to jump on board. He could start pretending to be presidential (having someone else write the speeches, and refusing to do any talking that isn't on a teleprompter would be enough) and his approval ratings would shoot into the stratosphere because expectations have been set so low up until now. It is not a good idea to underestimate him. He defies expectations, over and over, while doing things every day that would be the end of any other person's political career.
- bayesian_horse 7y ago
  The base is not enough. He needs more independents to vote for him than last time. And according to most polls, he just doesn't have them. You think he can act more presidential? No, he physically can't. He can barely read. Reading a teleprompter is torture for him. He messes up about one sentence in three (being generous) and takes pauses. He sounds like a hostage reading a manuscript. He constitutionally can't tell the truth, and that is evident from his long public life and has been even more densely proven through his presidency. He really doesn't have the skills to even "act" presidential or fake empathy. He also is mentally incapable of not being in the spotlight. He is hijacking the Covid-19 press briefings, turning them into campaign speeches. Lying both about Covid-19 and about other issues like his Facebook popularity, his impeachment or whatever else he is obsessed about.

rootusrootus 7y ago

Trump has a rock solid base, so he only needs to convince a few swing voters to jump on board. He could start pretending to be presidential (having someone else write the speeches, and refusing to do any talking that isn't on a teleprompter would be enough) and his approval ratings would shoot into the stratosphere because expectations have been set so low up until now. It is not a good idea to underestimate him. He defies expectations, over and over, while doing things every day that would be the end of any other person's political career.

bayesian_horse 7y ago
The base is not enough. He needs more independents to vote for him than last time. And according to most polls, he just doesn't have them. You think he can act more presidential? No, he physically can't. He can barely read. Reading a teleprompter is torture for him. He messes up about one sentence in three (being generous) and takes pauses. He sounds like a hostage reading a manuscript. He constitutionally can't tell the truth, and that is evident from his long public life and has been even more densely proven through his presidency. He really doesn't have the skills to even "act" presidential or fake empathy. He also is mentally incapable of not being in the spotlight. He is hijacking the Covid-19 press briefings, turning them into campaign speeches. Lying both about Covid-19 and about other issues like his Facebook popularity, his impeachment or whatever else he is obsessed about.