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Even before Covid-19 I thought China would soon be hitting some form of glass ceiling. Partly because of things like a virus that gets a head start on an author
by bayesian_horse 7y ago
Even before Covid-19 I thought China would soon be hitting some form of glass ceiling. Partly because of things like a virus that gets a head start on an authoritarian, corruption-riddled government. If they had their sh*t together, they would have enforced their ban on "exotic" meat already and the whole episode might never even have started at all. And they also can't get a grip on the African Swine Fever, for similar reasons, which also hampers economic growth. Then there was the Sanlu milk powder scandal. Similar things echo around modern Chinese history. Dishonesty can win in the short run, but it hurts long-term.
Lack of openness means corruption, corruption means volatility, volatility limits growth. Yes, they achieved a lot of great things for their people. But without an open and much more honest society they will reach a ceiling. And then there is the threat of some kind of "Economic World War" when the rest of the world has had enough of Human rights violations of Third Reich proportion (Falun Gong, Uighurs, etc) and their unfair trade practices.