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The consensus is Covid-19 is a naturally occurring rather than engineered virus. Everyone outside of a very small number of radical conspiracy theorists underst

The consensus is Covid-19 is a naturally occurring rather than engineered virus. Everyone outside of a very small number of radical conspiracy theorists understand this. But here's a dark thought. China has just showed the West if there ever _is_ a biowar, who will likely win.

mythrwy 7y ago
Maybe that needs clarification. I don't think anything about this was deliberate. But incidental demonstration is still demonstration.
- bayesian_horse 7y ago
  Bioweapons are normally not meant to be transmitted human to human on a large scale. It is a popular view that something like Sars viruses would be a good agent, but actually it's not. First: You don't want to infect your own people, especially if your health system is inferior. Containment is impractical. Second: You need to find an agent that satisfies two requirements. It must be able to transmit readily between humans. And it must not have done so already, because that would make most of the potential victims immune. That's basically impossible to achieve.
AnimalMuppet 7y ago
"The only way to win is not to play." China certainly did not win. The best they could be thought to have done is "lose less badly". Even that is questionable, depending on how much you believe their statistics.
- mythrwy 7y ago
  Did they close their whole country to control the spread? Are they mostly open now? Did they have the same rate of infections and deaths (even if they fudge numbers some)? Look, I dislike CCP as much as anyone but I think we need to look at reality so we can be prepared.
  - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
    > Did they close their whole country to control the spread? Yes, they did... eventually. You certainly could make a case that they did it far too late (though that could also be said of other countries). > Are they mostly open now? Maybe? They say they are. Other people have questioned that claim. > Did they have the same rate of infections and deaths (even if they fudge numbers some)? Hard telling, if they fudge the numbers. There are huge discrepancies between the official numbers and what other people try to estimate by indirect means (cremation urns, for example). Depending on who you believe, their death toll may be horrific. Mind you, I'm not saying that these other claims are correct. I'm saying that we don't know that the official claims are correct, and if they're wrong, we don't know how far off they are.
  - bayesian_horse 7y ago
    I think you forget that the whole issue started because of a virus that came via bats and civet cats which were sold on Chinese markets. In violation of a ban on such meats, since the last SARS epidemic. But it hasn't been enforced rigorously, probably because it's not really possible to enforce something like that with all the corruption that is going on. They can control social media with technology, but they can't stop people selling "free" meat.

mythrwy 7y ago

Maybe that needs clarification. I don't think anything about this was deliberate. But incidental demonstration is still demonstration.

bayesian_horse 7y ago
Bioweapons are normally not meant to be transmitted human to human on a large scale. It is a popular view that something like Sars viruses would be a good agent, but actually it's not. First: You don't want to infect your own people, especially if your health system is inferior. Containment is impractical. Second: You need to find an agent that satisfies two requirements. It must be able to transmit readily between humans. And it must not have done so already, because that would make most of the potential victims immune. That's basically impossible to achieve.

AnimalMuppet 7y ago

"The only way to win is not to play." China certainly did not win. The best they could be thought to have done is "lose less badly". Even that is questionable, depending on how much you believe their statistics.

mythrwy 7y ago
Did they close their whole country to control the spread? Are they mostly open now? Did they have the same rate of infections and deaths (even if they fudge numbers some)? Look, I dislike CCP as much as anyone but I think we need to look at reality so we can be prepared.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  > Did they close their whole country to control the spread? Yes, they did... eventually. You certainly could make a case that they did it far too late (though that could also be said of other countries). > Are they mostly open now? Maybe? They say they are. Other people have questioned that claim. > Did they have the same rate of infections and deaths (even if they fudge numbers some)? Hard telling, if they fudge the numbers. There are huge discrepancies between the official numbers and what other people try to estimate by indirect means (cremation urns, for example). Depending on who you believe, their death toll may be horrific. Mind you, I'm not saying that these other claims are correct. I'm saying that we don't know that the official claims are correct, and if they're wrong, we don't know how far off they are.
- bayesian_horse 7y ago
  I think you forget that the whole issue started because of a virus that came via bats and civet cats which were sold on Chinese markets. In violation of a ban on such meats, since the last SARS epidemic. But it hasn't been enforced rigorously, probably because it's not really possible to enforce something like that with all the corruption that is going on. They can control social media with technology, but they can't stop people selling "free" meat.